Lost our one-off over yesterday, but Heat Index bounced back. More today, plus a little night racing with NASCAR.
Texas at Toronto
The Blue Jays’ are Heat Index’s second choice today, not its first. This only really matters for tracking purposes. The odds are expensive but if there was ever an argument to be made for streaky intangibles, yesterday’s game in this series made it.
Pick: Toronto to win –172. 0.88 units to win 0.51. Corbin and Lauer must start.
Detroit at Minnesota
On the spot-based side, we think the Tigers are far enough out of their tailspin to be favorites here. Casey Mize is a little underappreciated.
Pick: Detroit to win –102. 0.92 units to win 0.90. Mize and Matthews must start.
Anaheim at Sacramento
Heat Index’s first choice is the A’s. They did tell us Sacramento would be hot in the summer.
Pick: Sacramento to win –120. 0.61 units to win 0.51. Anderson and Morales must start.
Cook Out 400
Toyotas qualified well at Richmond, and Tyler Reddick qualified the best of them. The odds don’t like him, probably due to contract uncertainty, but he hasn’t been bad since the last legal development in 23XI vs. NASCAR. This is probably a good price.
Pick: Tyler Reddick to finish top ten –140. 0.72 units to win 0.51.
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I am only roughly 90% confident in these numbers. At some point we’ll get that Google Sheet up which tracks all our bets this year.
2025–26: –489.77 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2025–26: –8% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 594 single-game markets plus three completed futures portfolios)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.
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