We keep hanging in there on football, and our MLB futures portfolio is in a good spot. We might finish this year profitable yet.
ALDS: Seattle vs. Detroit
There are two things happening here: First, there’s a little value on the Tigers because the Mariners are trendy and the Tigers aren’t as bad as they played in September and Tarik Skubal will start twice on normal rest if this series goes five games. Second, we have a ton of upside on the Mariners.
Pick: Detroit to win +164. 4.00 units to win 6.56.
Western Kentucky at Delaware
Movelor likes Western Kentucky here outright. Is it right?
Both these teams have only lost once against the Movelor spread. In Delaware’s case, it came against Delaware State, the fourth-biggest overperformer in Division I so far this year. Movelor might be undervaluing Delaware.
But…
In WKU’s case, it came against Toledo, the seventeenth-biggest overperformer so far this year.
Our best guess is that Movelor’s either right on both of these teams or a little bit behind. Either way, it shouldn’t be a full touchdown off. Give us Big Red.
Pick: Western Kentucky +2.5 (–105). 2.90 units to win 2.76.
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I am only roughly 90% confident in these numbers. At some point we’ll get that Google Sheet up which tracks all our bets this year.
2025–26: –426.34 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2025–26: –6% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 810 single-game markets plus three completed futures portfolios and one partly completed futures portfolio)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.
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