Well, we did it. We finally swept a day again. I don’t think we’d done that all month.
The risk, of course, is getting too comfortable, and I’m a little worried with this second one that I’m just a mouse going back to the cheese. But here’s how we see two of today’s games, and where we’re going with them:
Cincinnati @ Iowa State
Kenpom has the line on this at 12, which could be as low as 11.5, given rounding. Where we’re coming from here is that before Milan Momcilovic went down, Iowa State played like a top-five team. With him only back for two games so far and the Cyclones very good in both of those, we expect them to return to top-five kenpom status soon. They’re not there yet, though, and with Cincinnati’s little three-game win streak maybe propping up the Bearcats in bettors’ minds, that makes us think the number is a little bit too low.
Pick: Iowa State –11.5 (–115). 10.00 units to win 8.70.
Kentucky @ Texas
There are a lot of injuries tonight in Austin. Jaxson Robinson is out again for Kentucky. Lamont Butler is back out for Kentucky. Arthur Kaluma was doubtful for Texas the last time I checked.
The risk here is that Kentucky’s depth is harder hit and the Wildcats respond by slowing things down. That’s where this is likeliest to go wrong. What’s likelier, though, is that with 1) two of the game’s four best defenders* sidelined and 2) Kentucky knowing how much trouble Texas has defending tempo and 3) Rodney Terry not exactly an adjustment wizard, this ends up closer to its kenpom total of 161.
Pick: Over 158 (–110). 10.00 units to win 9.09.
*Per EvanMiya.
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I am only roughly 90% confident in these numbers. We’ll get that Google Sheet up soon which tracks all our bets this year.
2025: –114.67 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2025: –7% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 78 single-game markets)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.
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