Out of nowhere, we got a 3–0 day yesterday. Go figure. Only the Super Bowl today. Taking a swing to try to finish even on our NFL futures portfolio. If you’re following but want to cap your maximum loss, only take one or the other.
Super Bowl
For the third time this postseason, the Patriots aren’t the better team. Will they win anyway for the third straight time? Maybe. Maybe Sam Darnold goes full Stroud. Maybe the Seahawks bungle it. Maybe the Patriots make plays at the right time and pull away. More likely, the Seahawks take care of business, and a public that’s been more pro-Seahawks than books anticipated is proven correct. FPI’s got the line at 4.4 here. We take the Seahawks side of that coin flip.
Pick: Seattle to win –235. 54.05 units to win 23.00.
Pick: Seattle –4.5 (–108). 43.00 units to win 39.81.
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I am only roughly 90% confident in these numbers. At some point we’ll get that Google Sheet up which tracks all our bets this year.
2025–26: –611.32 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2025–26: –7% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 1,064 single-game markets plus five completed futures portfolios and one partly completed futures portfolio)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.
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