We’re getting to the point in the year where our “winners win on Tuesdays” approach starts to trail off. We don’t have great data on when exactly this happens, but our baseline plan is to stick with that restriction this week and next week.
(If you don’t know what we’re talking about, you’re not missing much, and we’ll catch you up next March.)
Colorado at Cleveland
As we said the other day, Tanner Gordon’s been one of the most competent parts of the Rockies this year. Meanwhile, the Guardians are facing a duel clubhouse threat from the shadow of gambling investigations and the threat of a selloff. The Rockies are sellers too, but that’s their natural habitat. At this price, it’s worth the shot.
Pick: Colorado to win +178. 0.95 units to win 1.69. Gordon and Allen must start.
Tampa Bay at New York (AL)
Here too, the price is worth it. Max Fried’s blister concern against the Cubs and underwhelming outing in Toronto have contributed heavily to this Yankees skid. It’s not that he’s bad. It’s that he hasn’t been good enough to be the stopper the Yankees need.
Pick: Tampa Bay to win +167. 1.01 units to win 1.69. Boyle and Fried must start.
Chicago (NL) at Milwaukee
Speaking of those Cubs, Colin Rea has defied our expectations before, but his FIP and xERA have been red flags all year and he allowed three home runs his last time out. On the other side of the inning, Quinn Priester has—like many pitchers before him—clicked in Milwaukee.
Pick: Milwaukee to win –123. 2.07 units to win 1.68. Rea and Priester must start.
Pittsburgh at San Francisco
For a long time, Justin Verlander wasn’t pitching as badly as his top line stats would have you believe. That might be changing. Even when he did get a win (against the Braves last week), he did it walking five, striking out only three, and receiving a charitable .083 opponent BABIP from the fates. Just like the Rockies and Rays, the Pirates are worth it at this price.
Pick: Pittsburgh to win +148. 1.14 units to win 1.69. Falter and Verlander must start.
World Series
A little more on the Rangers today, and…
Pick: Texas to win +4000. 2.00 units to win 80.00.
AL West
More on the Mariners, our highest-upside team. The Rangers’ surge has opened some value on Seattle, value amplified by the Astros’ surprising skid. Those three are now within four games of one another at the top of the West. (Also, the Angels are only four additional games back, but we’re trying not to do anything dumb right before the trade deadline.)
Pick: Seattle to win +260. 2.00 units to win 5.20.
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I am only roughly 90% confident in these numbers. At some point we’ll get that Google Sheet up which tracks all our bets this year.
2025–26: –487.64 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2025–26: –8% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 530 single-game markets plus three completed futures portfolios)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.
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