Tomorrow, our Heat Indices start again, but we’re not going to sunset our “spot”-based approach just yet. That approach is up to a 78–57 record for us against average odds of –114. We’re wary of it hitting an expiration date, but for now, we’re going to keep charging ahead.
That said, our approach will have to at least change a little with input from Heat Index and Heat Index 2. So today is the last pure day of what’s been a good—if not ultimately all that fruitful (unit problems)—approach. Hopefully we can mark the occasion with a good day.
Minnesota at Detroit
There’s a good chance Jack Flaherty’s figuring it out. His long-term track record and what we can tell of his intangibles make even as short a successful stretch as two starts more promising than it’d be for a quadruple-A pitcher with 45 career innings. But these are long odds for a game that should be affected by rain, and even with that sweep of the Diamondbacks, it’s not like the Tigers are humming. The Twins, for their part, haven’t faceplanted after the selloff. Maybe that’s still coming, but they look mediocre, not terrible.
Pick: Minnesota to win +169. 0.67 units to win 1.13. Ohl and Flaherty must start.
New York (AL) at Texas
We tend to treat Yankees sky–is–falling narratives with caution, but there’s an opportunity here. Carlos Rodón’s been New York’s stopper for most of the year, but his last few times out, he’s looked vulnerable. Jack Leiter’s quietly putting together a solid little season. Also, the narratives around the Bronx are really, really loud. This is different from losing in October. We like the Bruce Bochy-coached team to continue to pounce.
Pick: Texas to win +118. 0.96 units to win 1.13. Rodón and Leiter must start.
St. Louis at Los Angeles
We’re turning on Matthew Liberatore, and it gives us no joy to do that. Why are we going through with it? Because since coming back from injury, Shohei Ohtani the Pitcher’s been the great version of Shohei Ohtani the Pitcher. Most of the time, we only see the good version. That’s still really good, and combined with the bat, etc. etc. etc. But the great version? Shohei Ohtani the Pitcher When He Puts It All Together? That’s something special. Even three or four innings of that is enough to put the Dodgers in position for a big afternoon.
It doesn’t hurt that for the last five years, the Dodgers have always at least tied for baseball’s best record across the month of August.
Pick: Los Angeles to win –195. 2.21 units to win 1.13. Liberatore and Ohtani must start.
Milwaukee at Atlanta
If there’s one unsustainable thing about the Brewers (and there have to at least be a couple, right?), it’s Jose Quintana. Over Quintana’s career, his ERA and FIP are 0.02 runs apart. He’s not a guy who should have a particularly abnormal BABIP, and he doesn’t. Since that 2022 resurrection, his FIP’s been good (3.93), but his ERA’s been significantly better (3.41). Take 2022 out of the equation, and the gap starts to grow. From 2023 through now, it’s at 0.85 runs. Since the start of 2024, it’s at 0.99. This season, it’s at 1.35, and with his xERA only 0.01 runs better than his FIP, there’s no reason to think that the home runs will continue to magically come when runners aren’t on base.
This feels like one of those lines where bettors know the Braves should be favored but are too cautious to bet them up to their true probability. Spencer Strider’s not who he used to be, but he’s still good enough to get Atlanta a win tonight.
Pick: Atlanta to win –128. 1.45 units to win 1.13. Quintana and Strider must start.
NL East
The Guardians beat the Mets again last night, which means two things: First, the Phillies are now three losses ahead in the NL East with a slightly easier schedule remaining.
Pick: Philadelphia to win –240. 2.00 units to win 0.83.
ALCS
Second, the Guards are suddenly three games over .500 and only one loss behind the Yankees for the final playoff spot in the American League.
Pick: Cleveland to win +7000. 2.00 units to win 140.00.
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I am only roughly 90% confident in these numbers. At some point we’ll get that Google Sheet up which tracks all our bets this year.
2025–26: –486.40 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2025–26: –8% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 555 single-game markets plus three completed futures portfolios)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.
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