Futures markets are still open this morning, so we’re going to make this as quick as we can.
Tampa Bay at New York (AL)
I’m not sure the market’s processed how badly the Rays are playing. Starting June 27th, the day the Orioles chased Ryan Pepiot in the second inning on their way to a 22–8 win, the Rays have been the worst team in baseball, one of only two teams with single-digit wins. (The other is the Braves, not the Rockies or White Sox.) Pepiot? He’s made four quality starts over his five subsequent outings, but he’s allowed seven home runs in those five appearances and sports a 5.39 short-term FIP, saved from himself by a .214 opposing BABIP.
Had we gotten up early enough this morning, we would’ve joined everyone else and bet on the Reds tonight. But that price has gotten out of control. We’d rather take Marcus Stroman—who’s no longer good but has mostly been serviceable—as a pre-vig underdog.
Pick: New York to win –102. 1.35 units to win 1.32. Pepiot and Stroman must start.
NLCS
Are the Padres going to trade Dylan Cease? At this point, my gut says they will. This, of course, will be bad for the Padres. But the flipside is that they seem to be chasing present value in return, and since we don’t have anything else on them on the postseason side of our portfolio, that’s enough justification to grab what seems to be value.
The Phillies are a little worrisome because they were an early mover, meaning they might have less to gain from here and might look artificially strong at this hour. At the same time, though, their odds haven’t moved and we’ve liked this price for a long time. We’ll add a little more.
Pick: Philadelphia to win +500. 2.00 units to win 10.00.
Pick: San Diego to win +1700. 2.00 units to win 34.00.
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I am only roughly 90% confident in these numbers. At some point we’ll get that Google Sheet up which tracks all our bets this year.
2025–26: –484.27 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2025–26: –8% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 536 single-game markets plus three completed futures portfolios)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.
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