Nice little sweep yesterday. Encouraging stuff, for better or worse.
Pittsburgh at Chicago (NL)
There isn’t a single spot we like today, so we’ve got nothing as far as spot-based moneylines go. We do think the over’s undervalued at Wrigley because of the Pirates’ impotence and the Cubs’ slump. The wind’s blowing out more than in, Colin Rea’s been getting away with it, and the Cubs still do have all those bats. They’re somewhere in there.
Pick: Over 9 (+103). 0.47 units to win 0.48. Ashcraft and Rea must start.
Texas at Toronto
Heat Index’s first choice is the Blue Jays, with the Rangers scuffling the last few weeks after pulling close to the Astros and Mariners at the top of the AL West. They’re now only .500 overall, and their pitching staff has been one of the five worst in baseball over the last six series.
Pick: Toronto to win –106. 0.52 units to win 0.49. deGrom and Bassitt must start.
Anaheim at Sacramento
Heat Index’s second choice is the A’s, who are 8–7 since sweeping the Astros—good enough to make them 12–7 over the sample Heat Index is currently referencing. Over that stretch only the Brewers, Blue Jays, and Padres have a better wRC+, and only the Reds, Dodgers, and Padres have a better FIP.
Pick: Sacramento to win +102. 0.48 units to win 0.49. Kikuchi and Perkins must start.
ALCS
There isn’t much value in the futures markets today. My guess is that books consolidated their prices on the slow day yesterday, bringing them more in line with competition and eliminating outliers, and that they also tightened them as they give out a slew of football season bonuses. For our purposes, the only option that makes sense is the Yankees. We have our pick of where to bet them—ALCS or World Series—and while the World Series offers slightly better value, the ALCS helps our portfolio more.
Pick: New York to win +550. 4.00 units to win 22.00.
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I am only roughly 90% confident in these numbers. At some point we’ll get that Google Sheet up which tracks all our bets this year.
2025–26: –490.27 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2025–26: –8% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 591 single-game markets plus three completed futures portfolios)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.
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