Back again. No college basketball for a moment, and we’ll hold off on bowl games for today (no clear underdog), but we’ve got this week’s NFL futures plus a Thursday night pick.
NFC West
This hints at our pick below, but there’s value on the Rams to win the division (and if they do lose tonight, that opens a door for the 49ers, who we also have upside on).
Pick: LA Rams to win –160. 7.00 units to win 4.38.
AFC
A little more on the Chargers. Not a ton of new value this week.
Pick: LA Chargers to win +1100. 1.00 unit to win 11.00.
Super Bowl
We’ll take a little more Steelers to make them profitable again for us within the Super Bowl market. We’ll use the last units on the Niners. As long as they win one playoff game, we should be able to use the leverage. And if the Seahawks win tonight? That leverage might appear earlier than the playoffs.
Pick: Pittsburgh to win +6000. 1.00 unit to win 60.00.
Pick: San Francisco to win +2200. 3.00 units to win 66.00.
LA Rams at Seattle
Maybe we’re falling into a trap, but we don’t trust these Seahawks yet in a game approaching playoff stakes. We do trust the Rams.
Pick: LA Rams +1 (–110). 2.94 units to win 2.67.
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I am only roughly 90% confident in these numbers. At some point we’ll get that Google Sheet up which tracks all our bets this year.
2025–26: –509.32 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2025–26: –6% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 997 single-game markets plus four completed futures portfolios and one partly completed futures portfolio)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.
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