Apologies for the absence. Had an unexpected doctor’s visit (everything’s fine). We’ve got a lot of college football today, and some World Series futures mechanizations after our beautiful Blue Jays got the job done in Game 1.
The current plan is to do NBA and NHL futures Monday or Tuesday, then do them again on Friday, then do them again the next Tuesday and be back on our intended weekly cadence. Apologies about that too!
World Series
The public is still really confident in the Dodgers. We don’t think it should be on that level. Add in the public’s tendency to overrate the probability of a series going seven games, and we’re seeing good value today on the Blue Jays to win in 4, 5, or 6. We’re not going to go heavy on it, but we’ll put a little more down, hoping they get a 2–0 lead and eliminate our worst-case scenario, which is the Dodgers rallying to win each of the next four.
Pick: Toronto –1.5 games +190. 8.64 units to win 16.42.
Mississippi at Oklahoma
I don’t know if this line is a bet on Ole Miss being distracted/letdown or a continued belief that Oklahoma is a borderline top-five team. If it’s the former, ok. The latter is wacky, though.
Pick: Mississippi +5.5 (–110). 3.45 units to win 3.14.
SMU at Wake Forest
Wake Forest is competitive, and SMU’s big win over Clemson might have been a product of Clemson (and Clemson’s health) more than SMU. Movelor still has this up at 8.4, though. That’s a big gap at this point in the score distribution curve.
Pick: SMU –3.5 (–110). 3.45 units to win 3.14.
USF at Memphis
Memphis showed last week why you can’t count on them. But they’re still probably better than USF on an average Saturday. Brendon Lewis’s status has pushed this line back towards Memphis, but not far enough. (Honestly, we wish we were getting the backup and that line. Should’ve bet this earlier in the week.)
Pick: Memphis to win +149. 2.10 units to win 3.13.
Alabama at South Carolina
Alabama’s had focus issues under Kalen DeBoer. They’re coming off four straight ranked wins. South Carolina isn’t terrible. This is dangerous for the Tide.
Pick: South Carolina to win +345. 0.91 units to win 3.14.
NC State at Pitt
Pitt’s been playing good ball in the ACC season and nobody seems to be picking up on that. The quarterback change worked.
Pick: Pitt –6 (–110). 3.45 units to win 3.14.
Baylor at Cincinnati
This is pretty disrespectful to a team who’s been handling a variety of Big 12 competition without too much trouble. Cincy’s 7–0 against Movelor’s spread this year and Movelor likes them a lot more than this line.
Pick: Cincinnati –3.5 (–105). 3.29 units to win 3.13.
Texas at Mississippi State
Texas is painful to watch, but they aren’t bad.
Pick: Texas –7.5 (–105). 3.29 units to win 3.13.
Houston at Arizona State
Jordyn Tyson’s a good football player, but a wide receiver injury doesn’t matter this much.
Pick: Arizona State –7 (–110). 3.45 units to win 3.14.
North Dakota State at South Dakota State
Maybe NDSU gets in its own head today, but unless they do that, they’re the better team by more than a touchdown.
Pick: North Dakota State –4 (–110). 3.45 units to win 3.14.
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I am only roughly 90% confident in these numbers. At some point we’ll get that Google Sheet up which tracks all our bets this year.
2025–26: –456.36 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2025–26: –6% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 852 single-game markets plus three completed futures portfolios and one partly completed futures portfolio)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.
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