Great start to the day on Saturday. Tough finish.
One bowl game today, plus Monday Night Football.
Utah State vs. Washington State
We love a bowl game underdog, but unfortunately, there isn’t one here. If the underdog’s at shorter odds than even, there’s no way we’re getting value on our “these games are all closer to 50/50” theory.
So, we’re betting the other “nobody knows anything about these games” theory—we’re betting this will be closer to the average FBS game in scoring than it is to these teams’ norms.
Small unit here. No trustworthy track record on this sort of approach.
Pick: Over 50.5 (–110). 2.69 units to win 2.45.
San Francisco at Indianapolis
It’s so hard to know what the Philip Rivers Colts are. We’re going to guess that they’re a little worse in the second week when the hits are stacking up and teams have a better idea what to prepare for.
Pick: San Francisco –4.5 (–110). 2.69 units to win 2.45.
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I am only roughly 90% confident in these numbers. At some point we’ll get that Google Sheet up which tracks all our bets this year.
2025–26: –532.40 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2025–26: –6% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 1,006 single-game markets plus four completed futures portfolios and one partly completed futures portfolio)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.
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