Tough last night. Hopefully we have the college football weeknight success we had last week.
Kentucky at Louisville
There was speculation earlier today that Otega Oweh wouldn’t play for Kentucky. That speculation corresponded with this line moving from 2.5 to 6.5. It appears he’s playing. The line hasn’t moved back. Was the line movement independent of Oweh’s status? Are books facing a big Louisville liability and not wanting to risk getting middled? Whatever the case, a five-point gap from kenpom is a lot for a game where the underdog looks healthy.
Pick: Kentucky +6.5 (–120). 1.86 units to win 1.55.
Ohio at Western Michigan
This is another line that’s moved a little, opening with Ohio favored. I’m not seeing any injury news on either side that would have moved it, so it must just be smart money liking WMU? We’ll take our chances against that. Ohio’s the better team on paper. Ohio hasn’t lost in November since 2021.
Pick: Ohio +1 (–107). 8.30 units to win 7.76.
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I am only roughly 90% confident in these numbers. At some point we’ll get that Google Sheet up which tracks all our bets this year.
2025–26: –483.83 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2025–26: –6% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 893 single-game markets plus four completed futures portfolios)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.
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