Sticking with the high mid-majors today. High as in close to high-major. No elevation this time.
Memphis at South Florida
This USF team is good, and there are signs it’ll get better. You could make an argument about how with this being Bryan Hodgson’s first year, the program should still be gelling, but a better argument is that USF’s opponents have a great three-point shooting percentage, and that’s likely to regress a little. Memphis, meanwhile, sure looks like Memphis these days, with vibes poor and their last win over a top-100 kenpom team coming more than two months ago.
Pick: South Florida –8.5 (–115). 4.78 units to win 4.16.
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I am only roughly 90% confident in these numbers. At some point we’ll get that Google Sheet up which tracks all our bets this year.
2025–26: –580.19 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2025–26: –6% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 1,074 single-game markets plus six completed futures portfolios)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.
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