We started yesterday 3–0. We ended it 4–6–1. Along the way we got a Nestor Cortes masterpiece and lightning causing a game to be declared “no contest.” At least the Dublin under held on.
New York (NL) at Atlanta
Heat Index has a new second choice today, because the Mets have hit so well the last two nights that our metric now calls them the second-hottest team in baseball.
Pick: New York to win –129. 0.26 units to win 0.20. Peterson and Elder must start.
Washington at Philadelphia
Its first choice remains the Phillies.
Pick: Philadelphia to win –265. 0.52 units to win 0.20. Irvin and Suárez must start.
Minnesota at Chicago (AL)
On the spot-based side…we don’t think Taj Bradley is bad? This line makes it seem like Taj Bradley is bad. He’s pitching against the White Sox. We need to maintain some integrity.
Pick: Minnesota to win –110. 0.25 units to win 0.23. Bradley and Gómez must start.
IndyCar at Milwaukee
Tragically, I’m not seeing the “Chevrolet to be the winning engine” option in any markets today as the fellas race around the Milwaukee Mile. We’ll go with oval ace Josef Newgarden instead, taking what we think’s a pretty cautious approach by not betting him to win outright. (We like Scott McLaughlin and would prefer him in victory lane.)
Pick: Josef Newgarden to finish top-three +110. 0.18 units to win 0.20.
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I am only roughly 90% confident in these numbers. At some point we’ll get that Google Sheet up which tracks all our bets this year.
2025–26: –496.44 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2025–26: –8% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 633 single-game markets plus three completed futures portfolios)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.
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