After getting hot on overs the last few weeks, our overs have gone cold the last few days. Having said that…
We’re in on another over tonight.
North Texas at Florida Atlantic
Yes, North Texas slows it down. Yes, North Texas is tenacious on defense. Yes, North Texas might be missing Johnathan Massie again. But part of why we just saw UNT hold Tulsa to 44 and USF to 57 is that those teams are terrible three-point shooting teams. FAU’s not a terrible three-point shooting thing. I like the Mean Green here, and I lean towards thinking they’ll win, but I think the market is getting a little aggressive on this under.
Pick: Over 135 (–110). 10.00 units to win 9.09.
UC San Diego at Cal State–Northridge
Cal State–Northridge is on a tear. They’ve won seven straight, they beat UC Irvine last week, and after opening the season 252nd in kenpom they’re up to 106th heading into tonight.
My problem with this line is that I think bettors are conflating some of the recent close wins (over LBSU, Cal Poly, and UC Davis) with strong performances, when that wasn’t exactly the case. I also think CSUN’s getting an extra home-court boost here, which isn’t that unusual in conference games (especially earlier in the conference season) but would be unusual in the Big West if it truly did manifest. Only one team in the Big West has a home-court advantage in the top 250 nationally, per kenpom. Travel’s short, elevation’s low, gyms are empty and small. It’s not that kind of league.
So, give us the Tritons, who’ve not only won nine straight but have won all nine of those by double digits, including a 25-point smacking of the Matadors the last time this pair met.
Pick: UC San Diego –5.5 (–115). 10.00 units to win 8.70.
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I am only roughly 90% confident in these numbers. We’ll get that Google Sheet up soon which tracks all our bets this year.
2025: –90.73 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2025: –5% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 104 single-game markets)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.
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