Game 7 is here, and we’re letting our futures portfolio ride. As we said yesterday, our best outcome is Mariners over Dodgers and our worst is Dodgers over Mariners. The Blue Jays winning raises our floor and lowers our ceiling, and there isn’t a great way to hedge out of that.
Houston at Seattle
This violates our protocol (I was supposed to take Tampa Bay/Detroit, with that being the more noteworthy game, but I forgot how early it started). But FPI likes the Texans more than the Bucs anyway, so fingers crossed that it works in our favor. If it doesn’t, we might have to downshift to a 4% eROI unit from 5%. Unsurprisingly, we haven’t been as successful as we were last year.
Pick: Houston +3.5 (–120). 5.97 units to win 4.98.
**
I am only roughly 90% confident in these numbers. At some point we’ll get that Google Sheet up which tracks all our bets this year.
2025–26: –499.53 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2025–26: –7% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 847 single-game markets plus three completed futures portfolios and one partly completed futures portfolio)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.
**
