Wild one yesterday. Good one, but wild one.
Rice vs. Texas State
Navy vs. Cincinnati
SMU vs. Arizona
Wake Forest vs. Mississippi State
It’s bowl game business as usual. We’re betting moneyline underdogs, and when the underdog isn’t available at longer than even odds, we’re betting on the game to be in the high 50’s. Basically: Nobody knows as much about these games as they think they do.
Pick: Rice to win +624. 2.34 units to win 14.60.
Pick: Cincinnati to win +235. 6.21 units to win 14.59.
Pick: Arizona/SMU over 52 (–110). 3.21 units to win 2.92.
Pick: Wake Forest to win +135. 10.80 units to win 14.58.
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I am only roughly 90% confident in these numbers. At some point we’ll get that Google Sheet up which tracks all our bets this year.
2025–26: –485.33 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2025–26: –6% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 1,019 single-game markets plus four completed futures portfolios and one partly completed futures portfolio)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.
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