We went 5–5 yesterday in the basketball, and 6–5 overall. We’re 34–28 so far on NIT and NCAA Tournament games.
NCAA Tournament totals are now 0.5 points lower, on average, than their kenpom mark. Their median deviation is 0 points. The second round games played so far saw some high numbers. The first round games played at these sites on Friday by these teams saw some low numbers. For today, we’re going to trust the kenpom number, but if we’re really stuck, we’d lean under rather than over.
Florida vs. UConn
Kenpom and Nate Silver are getting two very different answers here on the spread, and we’d like to defer to them both. So, we’ll trust kenpom on the total.
Pick: Over 150.5 (–110). 10.00 units to win 9.09.
Duke vs. Baylor
Not as big of a gap with this one, but enough to put the spread right in the middle of the pair.
Pick: Under 144.5 (–110). 10.00 units to win 9.09.
Oklahoma State at SMU
We’re not sure what to make of this over. Per EvanMiya’s numbers, SMU’s a fairly comparable team with and without Boopie Miller, so his status for the game is for our purposes irrelevant. Marchelus Avery, though, again per EvanMiya, really drives up scoring on both the offensive and defensive ends for Oklahoma State. Assuming he’s out again, that makes us less comfortable taking an over we’d otherwise take. We’ll roll with the Mustangs at home, nervous though that makes us given the Big 12’s recent overperformance of expectations.
Pick: SMU –9.5 (–110). 10.00 units to win 9.09.
Illinois vs. Kentucky
We’re bucking kenpom a little here, thinking Jaxson Robinson’s absence still keeps scoring down by at least half a point. Tough to find an edge. We’d take the Kentucky spread but the possibility’s too strong that the Big Ten’s underrated by these systems and the SEC’s overrated.
Pick: Under 168.5 (–110). 10.00 units to win 9.09.
Alabama vs. Saint Mary’s
A narrow lean, made more comfortable by the WCC’s overperformance of expectations across the limited March sample.
Pick: Saint Mary’s +5.5 (–109). 10.00 units to win 9.17.
Arkansas State at North Texas
The AAC could be overrated, but a full point would be a lot, especially since its talent should be on par with Conference USA’s, and kenpom sees Conference USA as the better league. Arkansas State’s coming off a great game, but if they were playing that way every night they’d have won the Sun Belt Tournament.
Pick: North Texas –4 (–110). 10.00 units to win 9.09.
Loyola Chicago at San Francisco
Marcus Williams’s absence hurts, but we don’t know how much. Early indications are that it isn’t holding the Dons back too badly. As for Loyola: We don’t like what other A-10 teams are showing.
Pick: San Francisco –5 (–110). 10.00 units to win 9.09.
Maryland vs. Colorado State
The systems point towards CSU, but we have trouble trusting a Mountain West team against a Big Ten team given the over/underperformance landscape. So, we’ll trust them on the total instead.
Pick: Over 143.5 (–110). 10.00 units to win 9.09.
Iowa State vs. Mississippi
Mississippi’s tempting, but the SEC red flag is there, and the over should theoretically be helped by Keshon Gilbert’s absence. It was already looking good. That can seal the deal.
Pick: Over 144 (–110). 10.00 units to win 9.09.
Michigan State vs. New Mexico
One of the systems has this number at seven. The other has it at eight. Given that over/underperformance piece by conference, we’re comfortable taking Sparty.
Pick: Michigan State –7 (–107). 10.00 units to win 9.35.
Jacksonville State at UC Irvine
We don’t love what we’ve seen from Big West teams. Again, this doesn’t mean they’re bad. It just means they might be overvalued by kenpom, and in this case, kenpom already favors the Gamecocks.
Pick: Jacksonville State +8 (–110). 10.00 units to win 9.09.
Kent State at Stanford
Take away the first night, and NIT totals are only clearing the over by 1.9 points per game. We still think it’s fair to call the true number 4.0, given how big those first nights were, but even that leaves us taking the under here.
Pick: Under 141.5 (–105). 10.00 units to win 9.52.
UAB at Santa Clara
Again per EvanMiya, Adama-Alpha Bal is actually pretty interchangeable with the rest of this Santa Clara roster.
Pick: Santa Clara –6.5 (–110). 10.00 units to win 9.09.
Arizona vs. Oregon
I don’t know what’s driving this total so far upwards, but all our indicators are pointing Ducks.
Pick: Oregon +4 (–116). 10.00 units to win 8.62.
NIT
There’s narrow value on SMU, and we don’t see a good reason not to take it. Our payouts on NIT futures specifically would now be as follows:
- SMU: +66 units
- Chattanooga: +219 units
- Kent State: +177 units
- Anybody else: –24 units
Pick: SMU to win +325. 10.00 units to win 32.50.
NASCAR Cup Series at Homestead-Miami
For NASCAR this week, we like Chase Briscoe to have a solid day. He qualified well and Toyotas were strong the last time the series came to Homestead.
Pick: Chase Briscoe to finish top ten +115. 1.00 unit to win 1.15.
IndyCar at Thermal
And in IndyCar, give us Colton Herta, who passed a ton of cars in that all-star race they did here last season.
Pick: Colton Herta to finish top three +150. 1.00 unit to win 1.50.
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I am only roughly 90% confident in these numbers. We’ll get that Google Sheet up soon which tracks all our bets this year.
2025: –186.53 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2025: –7% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 210 single-game markets)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.
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