This is anecdotal, but in five of our last fourteen picks, we’ve won or lost by half a point. The market is good at what it does.
Tonight…
Mississippi at Auburn
Since beating Alabama in Tuscaloosa on January 14th, Mississippi is 4–5 overall, 1–4 against NCAA Tournament competition, and 1–1 against teams on the bubble. Three of those four wins have come by four points or fewer. Meanwhile, Chris Beard’s name keeps getting mentioned for the Indiana job, and other big roles might be open.
I don’t know if this team’s distracted or not. Maybe they’re just in a rough patch. But with Auburn rolling, I think it’s worth it to take the Tigers on an uncomfortably large number, especially since the number’s only half a point off of where kenpom has this game.
Pick: Auburn –12.5 (–110). 10.00 units to win 9.09.
Utah State at Boise State
These guys combined for 160 points when they played earlier this year in Logan, but they both shot the lights out in that game, at least from deep. (Oddly, each struggled at the free throw line.) The game was only 58 possessions, and I’m guessing that’s what bettors are looking at here, where kenpom has the total at 155 (on 67 possessions), markets opened with the number at 150.5, and markets now have that number down at 148.5.
I understand the temptation to expect another slow game. But neither team has played a lot of games that slow, Utah State’s offense is vicious, and even at 65 possessions, kenpom’s points per possession projection would hit this over with a point or two to spare. It seems like an overreaction, unless it’s coming from another explanation I can’t currently find.
Pick: Over 148.5 (–110). 10.00 units to win 9.09.
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I am only roughly 90% confident in these numbers. We’ll get that Google Sheet up soon which tracks all our bets this year.
2025: –89.82 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2025: –5% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 102 single-game markets)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.
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