Tough one for the Cubs this morning, and now on top of that I have lost a bet and I am very tired.
Every NIT and NCAA Tournament game, plus our daily college basketball future and another bet on the Cubs.
Alabama State vs. Saint Francis
We trust kenpom and Nate Silver. Seems like value here from people who think Alabama State will win (which we agree with) and are applying that to Alabama State’s cover probability.
Pick: Saint Francis +3.5 (–110). 15.00 units to win 13.64.
Kent State at St. Bonaventure
This is another we feel relatively good about. Not great, mind you, but relatively good. Kenpom likes the Bonnies, whose home-court advantage might be underrated by the markets.
Pick: St. Bonaventure –4.5 (–110). 15.00 units to win 13.64.
Jacksonville State at Georgia Tech
We don’t feel as good about this one. We suspect the ACC might be undervalued, and we don’t have any leaning on Conference USA. Kenpom’s got this at five, though, and we’re seeing the line at 6.5 (–105) in some other places.
Pick: Jacksonville State +7 (–105). 5.00 units to win 4.76.
Chattanooga at Middle Tennessee
MTSU’s home-court advantage grades out pretty positively, and we don’t think they’re a school for whom that disappears during the NIT.
Pick: Middle Tennessee –1.5 (–114). 5.00 units to win 4.39.
Saint Louis at Arkansas State
If there’s a trendy NIT bet, it’s this one. In the other direction, though.
Pick: Saint Louis +6 (–110). 15.00 units to win 13.64.
Wichita State at Oklahoma State
The totals are high tonight, and maybe that’s an NIT trend but if it’s based on something, I’d think the unusual field this year would negate that basis. I’m unaware of any rule change that would increase scoring.
Pick: Under 154 (–110). 5.00 units to win 4.55.
San Diego State vs. North Carolina
We don’t know what to make of the spread. We think bettors were waiting to pounce on UNC for being undervalued by the public, but then we have those Mountain West concerns and…yeah. It’s a wash. Kenpom points towards the over, and we’re fans, expecting bettors to maybe overreact to the return of Magoon Gwath.
Pick: Over 142 (–110). 5.00 units to win 4.55.
CSUN at Stanford
We have a slight theory that the Big West is overvalued. We do think the ACC is undervalued.
Pick: Stanford –6.5 (–115). 15.00 units to win 13.04.
UC Riverside at Santa Clara
If there’s going to be one blowout tonight, this is the likeliest spot for it to happen.
Pick: Santa Clara –9.5 (–115). 5.00 units to win 4.35.
NIT
We didn’t find an NIT future our probabilities liked, but we like SMU’s chances to win its opener, and if they do that, this becomes valuable. It’s only narrowly not valuable as things stand.
Pick: SMU to win +375. 10.00 units to win 37.50.
Los Angeles vs. Chicago (NL)
FanGraphs still shows us value here. The plan going into the series was to try to win one. We’re trying to win one.
Pick: Chicago (NL) to win +132. 15.00 units to win 19.80.
**
I am only roughly 90% confident in these numbers. We’ll get that Google Sheet up soon which tracks all our bets this year.
2025: –153.35 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2025: –7% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 146 single-game markets)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.
**
