The first pure college basketball weekend of the year is upon us, with not a scrap of leather besmirched by a corner or a lace. One pick for each day:
Indiana @ Purdue
Do we feel comfortable riding with Mike Woodson’s Indiana Hoosiers tonight? Of course not. But Indiana’s talent is there, and we’re only two years removed from the Hoosiers sweeping Purdue. This might be closer than it looks.
Pick: Indiana +12 (–108). 10.00 units to win 9.26.
Pick: Over 145 (–110). 10.00 units to win 9.09.
Notre Dame @ Miami
We’re sticking with our “bet against Miami every time” strategy a little while longer. We considered altering our approach of pairing unders with favorites and overs with underdogs, because Miami’s defensive effort is just so bad. At the same time, though, the odds have been capturing that? Kenpom has these guys 352nd in Division I in defensive adjusted efficiency. Their total is usually very close to where kenpom has it. At the very least, we don’t need to make an exception here based on a couple even higher-scoring games than usual.
Pick: Notre Dame –8 (–110). 10.00 units to win 9.09.
Pick: Under 149.5 (–110). 10.00 units to win 9.09.
Nebraska @ Oregon
Nebraska finally got back in the win column. Oregon’s been going through it lately. I’m guessing the market sees this too, but we do think this’ll be a course correction game. Nebraska isn’t good. Oregon is.
Pick: Oregon –7 (–110). 10.00 units to win 9.09.
Pick: Under 146 (–110). 10.00 units to win 9.09.
**
I am only roughly 90% confident in these numbers. We’ll get that Google Sheet up soon which tracks all our bets this year.
2025: –90.46 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2025: –7% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 47 single-game markets)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.
