No dice on yesterday’s MLB longshot. We’ve got another moneyline there today, an F1 move, Final Four picks, and another NCAA Tournament future as the clock ticks down.
Auburn vs. Florida
For whatever it’s worth, the last time the Final Four went to the Alamodome, overs went 2–1 against kenpom’s totals and won handily on the aggregate. That’s not the basis here, but it’s a good gut check given the questions about shooting and larger stadiums.
The fundamentals favor Auburn against the spread, but we already have an outstanding future on Auburn, and we have some questions about the distribution of final margins in the one-point and two-point range, especially with fouling up three so newly prevalent. So, we’re taking the other fundamentals play. We think it’s easy to make too much of Johni Broome’s injury given he’s been persistently banged up all year.
Pick: Over 159 (–110). 10.00 units to win 9.09.
Duke vs. Houston
There’s a similar situation in the nightcap regarding the spread and futures. In this case, though, we think the Houston value is good enough to make it worthwhile. Houston’s healthy this time. Nobody’s ever broken through until they do. And while we have our concerns about the whistle, that shouldn’t move this a full three points off the kenpom mark. Even kenpom is further towards Duke than aggregates like that of Nate Silver.
Pick: Houston +5 (–110). 10.00 units to win 9.09.
NCAA Tournament
We’re putting one more unit down on Auburn, on whom we think the value is the highest. Here’s our new breakdown:
- Auburn: +24.25 units
- Houston: +5.75 units
- Florida: –11 units
- Duke: –11 units
Those numbers are our tournament outcome as a whole. We’ve already lost a few units and accounted for those below, so our profit/loss from this point forward will be a little better than these numbers indicate.
Pick: Auburn to win +575. 1.00 unit to win 5.75.
Tampa Bay at Texas
No longshot today for baseball, which is probably good. Our process leads us to the Rangers, for whom Jacob deGrom is starting at home. Texas used a little bullpen last night, but not enough to be a big concern. The lineup is closer to healthy than Tampa Bay’s. Taj Bradley might be better than expected, but we’re actually seeing more of a likelihood that that’s true of deGrom, from whom regression is a natural expectation at 36 years old. FanGraphs’s Depth Charts system has deGrom finishing with a 2.79 FIP. He hasn’t finished with a FIP that high since 2017, with a 2.12 mark over the years since and a 2.32 number in Sunday’s start.
Pick: Texas to win –172. 15.00 units to win 8.72. Bradley and deGrom must start.
Japanese Grand Prix
Our motorsports bets have been profitable so far this season, so while we aren’t extraordinarily confident we can keep that up, we’ll at least start betting two units on each instead of one. Tonight, we like Verstappen to win from the pole. He’s a stronger competitor than Lando Norris, and while we know the qualifying situation might have turned out differently were it about more than one lap, the fact the Red Bull car was capable of matching McLaren’s speed at least once last night bodes well for giving Verstappen a chance. We’d think this should at least be a shorter price than 2-to-1.
Pick: Max Verstappen to win +240. 2.00 units to win 4.80.
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I am only roughly 90% confident in these numbers. We’ll get that Google Sheet up soon which tracks all our bets this year.
2025: –132.35 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2025: –4% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 247 single-game markets plus one half-completed futures portfolio)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.
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