What a day we have ahead of us. Books aren’t giving any good prices on playoff futures, but they’re giving great Heisman prices, and we’ve got thoughts on a few of today’s ballgames.
Georgia vs. Alabama
Georgia’s down a little in Movelor right now, but part of that is that they didn’t pour it on against Charlotte, which we do think they could have. The Georgia Tech performance was concerning, but we’ve seen them struggle three years in a row now against Brent Key’s team. Both years, they were still really good the next week.
Pick: Georgia –1 (–115). 1.17 units to win 1.02.
Ohio State vs. Indiana
We’re worried Ohio State will treat this like a semi-exhibition, but there’s gotta be greater than a 50% chance that they don’t, and that they want the full undefeated season and championship sweep. If they give it everything they have, they’re significantly better than this line. We’re back onto doubting Indiana.
Pick: Ohio State –3.5 (–115). 1.17 units to win 1.02.
North Dakota at Tarleton State
Tarleton’s not what they looked like early in the season, but to be fair, neither’s North Dakota. We think this is a familiarity bias.
Pick: Tarleton State –4.5 (–105). 1.07 units to win 1.02.
South Dakota State at Montana
And out in Missoula, South Dakota State really looked like a different team with Chase Mason back. Movelor only has this line at Montana by 4.2. The Jacks have more than 1.7 points of room to rise.
Pick: South Dakota State +2.5 (+100). 1.02 units to win 1.02.
Heisman Trophy
On the futures side, we never found anything we liked enough to risk what’s currently a guaranteed profit on the season so far. So, we’re back to the Heisman market, where our old 50-to-1 bet on Diego Pavia’s given us a lot of leverage. If one of him, Mendoza, and Sayin wins, we’ll now net at least 12 units on just 16 units bet. Should’ve gone heavier, I guess.
Pick: Fernando Mendoza to win +170. 5.00 units to win 8.50.
Pick: Julian Sayin to win +200. 2.00 units to win 4.00.
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I am only roughly 90% confident in these numbers. At some point we’ll get that Google Sheet up which tracks all our bets this year.
2025–26: –536.34 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2025–26: –7% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 991 single-game markets plus four completed futures portfolios and one partly completed futures portfolio)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.
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