Our college football luck did run out at the end of Week 1, but we survived opening weekend, which is a rarity for us. Now, back to the main programming.
New York (NL) at Detroit
Heat Index has two teams it likes even more than the Mets, but we’re Nolan McLean believers, so we’ll make this a spot-based play anyway.
Pick: New York to win –117. 0.55 units to win 0.47. McLean and Gipson-Long must start.
Cleveland at Boston
One of those two teams is the Red Sox (this is Heat Index’s second choice), and we agree to the point where even at –255, we’re making this a spot-based play. It checks all our usual boxes. Pricey, but the value should still be there.
Pick: Boston to win –255. 1.99 units to win 0.78. Cecconi and Crochet must start.
New York (AL) at Houston
Heat Index’s first choice is the Yankees. By wRC+ and FIP, the Astros have been the fifth-worst team in baseball over the last 3+ weeks. Wild that the Mariners aren’t catching up.
Pick: New York to win –111. 0.34 units to win 0.31. Fried and Valdez must start.
AL West
If the Blue Jays don’t win the East, we’re in a little trouble, especially if it’s the Yankees who pull it out. So, it’s relieving to see some value on the Astros, given we’re all Mariners upside in the West.
Pick: Houston to win –180. 4.00 units to win 2.22.
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I am only roughly 90% confident in these numbers. At some point we’ll get that Google Sheet up which tracks all our bets this year.
2025–26: –493.80 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2025–26: –8% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 688 single-game markets plus three completed futures portfolios)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.
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