Some ups and some downs yesterday, but nothing too decisive in either direction. More baseball today, our weekly racecars, and Sunday Night Football.
World Series
FanGraphs indicates this is a good price. We’re going to take a little more of it in case it only gets shorter from here.
Pick: Los Angeles to win +250. 4.00 units to win 10.00.
New England at Buffalo
Nothing new here. We use FPI with 1.75 points worth of home-field advantage.
Pick: New England +8 (–117). 5.99 units to win 5.12.
Singapore Grand Prix
Maybe we’re overthinking this, but we’re seeing Verstappen as short as –110 at some books, and we can get him at +130. He’s starting second, next to George Russell. It’s easy to see how this could go well.
Pick: Max Verstappen to win +130. 1.97 units to win 2.56.
Bank of America Roval 400
Tyler Reddick’s starting from the pole at a funky road course. That’s gotta be better than a 50/50 shot to finish top five.
Pick: Tyler Reddick to finish top 5 (+100). 2.56 units to win 2.56.
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I am only roughly 90% confident in these numbers. At some point we’ll get that Google Sheet up which tracks all our bets this year.
2025–26: –426.59 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2025–26: –6% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 819 single-game markets plus three completed futures portfolios and one partly completed futures portfolio)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.
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