It’s Week 1, and we’re 3–0 on NFL picks. Should we kneel out the clock?
No college football futures yet this week—we’ll save those for a few days from now when we have a better idea of our bankroll’s standing.
Minnesota at Chicago
We trust FPI. Even when we don’t want to.
Pick: Chicago +1 (–105). 1.18 units to win 1.12.
Kansas City at Cleveland
Still nothing spot-based—we’re recalibrating a little as the home stretch heats up—but Heat Index’s second choice is the Royals. It makes us nervous that Bobby Witt Jr.’s out, but we add no nuance to Heat Index.
Pick: Kansas City to win +100. 1.12 units to win 1.12. Bergert and Cecconi must start.
Colorado at Los Angeles
Heat Index’s first choice, unsurprisingly, is the Dodgers. The Rockies are so bad that even with the Dodgers cold in a relative sense, there’s a big gap in recent performance here.
Pick: Los Angeles to win –360. 4.03 units to win 1.12. No starting pitcher requirements.
NL West
They still hold the tiebreaker.
Pick: Los Angeles to win –250. 4.00 units to win 1.60.
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I am only roughly 90% confident in these numbers. At some point we’ll get that Google Sheet up which tracks all our bets this year.
2025–26: –486.60 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2025–26: –8% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 712 single-game markets plus three completed futures portfolios)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.
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