Heat Index still likes the Dodgers.
Philadelphia at Cincinnati
On the spot-based side, we’re still Phillies fans. Hunter Greene’s great when he’s healthy, but the Phillies should still be favored against him, especially with Cristopher Sánchez on the mound. Add in the at least slight possibility that the Reds are pushing it with Greene’s groin, and this price becomes attractive.
Pick: Philadelphia to win –121. 1.20 units to win 0.99. Sánchez and Greene must start.
Chicago (NL) at Toronto
Heat Index’s second choice flips today from the A’s to the Blue Jays, who are hitting even better than the Brewers over the last three-plus weeks.
Pick: Toronto to win -130. 0.73 units to win 0.56. Horton and Gausman must start.
Los Angeles at Anaheim
But its first choice remains the Dodgers, even as vultures circle in the narrative. They’ve got a 119 wRC+ and 86 FIP– over their last three and a half series. That should be legitimately reassuring to Dodgers fans and discouraging for the Padres, who check in over the same timeframe at only 114 and 89.
Pick: Los Angeles to win –197. 1.11 units to win 0.56. Ohtani and Hendricks must start.
World Series
With wins the last two nights, the Yankees are still in playoff danger (tied with the Guardians in the loss column) but they’re looking a lot safer. They should make the playoffs. If they make the playoffs, this should be a great price.
Pick: New York (AL) to win +1400. 2.00 units to win 28.00.
NLCS
Similarly, the Mets should be fine, and not just because of last night’s blowout, though that does help. FanGraphs projects the Reds to finish 82–80 and the Cardinals to finish 81–81. The median scenario involves one of those teams slightly overperforming, but the Mets or Cubs still probably need to slip to something like 85–77 to really be in danger. If the Mets can play one game better than .500 baseball from here, they should be alright.
Pick: New York to win +900. 2.00 units to win 18.00.
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I am only roughly 90% confident in these numbers. At some point we’ll get that Google Sheet up which tracks all our bets this year.
2025–26: –488.72 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2025–26: –8% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 585 single-game markets plus three completed futures portfolios)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.
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