We’re not quite to “good teams playing bad teams” MLB betting yet, but that’s on its way. Right now, it’s another Tuesday: We’re betting on yesterday’s winners.
Sacramento at Texas
We’ve spent a lot of time the last couple years blasting bettors’ perceptions of the Rangers. Right now, though, the Rangers are a solid team. They entered the break with a series win in Houston, exited with a series win over the Tigers, and now get a chance to clinch a series over the A’s before the schedule gets hard. We still wouldn’t advocate betting them in futures markets—they’ve got the Mariners (A), Yankees (H), and Phillies (H) in a row in a couple weeks—but it’s ok to trust Jacob deGrom, whose recent home run surge seems flukier than it is concerning.
Pick: Texas to win –214. 3.85 units to win 1.80. Ginn and deGrom must start.
Houston at Arizona
We talked yesterday about the Diamondbacks’ rotation, and here’s the problem with it: Eduardo Rodriguez hasn’t been himself. He wasn’t himself last year either, and he enters tonight having allowed twelve earned runs in just over eight July innings. Short outings, lots of home runs, and a FIP and xERA that although not as bad as his ERA (he’s due for some positive regression) are still much worse than you’d expect from a guy who posted 3.0 fWAR in 2023.
It helps us that he’s going against Framber Valdez tonight. The Astros are banged up, but Valdez has been cruising.
Pick: Houston to win –113. 2.03 units to win 1.80. Valdez and Rodriguez must start.
Minnesota at Los Angeles
Are the Dodgers still cold? Probably not. Since the start of last season, they’ve lost three or more games in a row eight times. Seven of those eight times, once they won one game they won a second. Five of those seven times, they’ve even won a third. This is small-sample stuff, but it illustrates the underlying phenomenon: The Dodgers are really good. They usually win. Simeon Woods Richardson deserves some credit, but the Twins are going to have to use a lot of bullpen even if he does get through five untouched. Meanwhile, Yoshinobu Yamamoto was just fine in his last outing after the preceding debacle against Milwaukee.
Pick: Los Angeles to win –223. 4.01 units to win 1.80. Woods Richardson and Yamamoto must start.
NL West
There’s value available on a lot of NL West teams right now, partly because markets are a little high on the Giants and partly because futures markets are inefficient. Some books have adjusted (over-adjusted, in fact) to where the Dodgers’ recent skid left the standings. Others haven’t. This isn’t great value, but it’s positive value, and with nothing else on the Padres in our portfolio, getting a 5.3% possibility at 18-to-1 isn’t a bad deal.
Pick: San Diego to win +1800. 2.00 units to win 36.00.
ALCS
Speaking of inefficiencies: Markets have the Blue Jays favored to win the AL East but half as likely as the Yankees to win the pennant. This isn’t entirely unreasonable—there’s only a 2-in-3 chance the AL East winner gets a bye, and the Yankees have a much higher ceiling than the team who keeps beating them—but it’s a little dumb. We’ll take Toronto.
Pick: Toronto to win +700. 2.00 units to win 14.00.
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I am only roughly 90% confident in these numbers. At some point we’ll get that Google Sheet up which tracks all our bets this year.
2025–26: –486.86 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2025–26: –8% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 509 single-game markets plus three completed futures portfolios)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.
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