Thankfully, our Wrigley Field over from Wednesday outweighed our Tigers skid under from yesterday. Back to the moneylines today.
Arizona at Pittsburgh
The Diamondbacks are staring down a selloff. The Pirates just swept the Tigers. But if you look a little further back, the Pirates were just swept by the White Sox and Mike Burrows hasn’t been as good as the market keeps crediting him for being. We like Arizona at this price. Talent usually wins.
Pick: Arizona to win –101. 1.28 units to win 1.27. Nelson and Burrows must start.
Sacramento at Houston
In Houston, it’s hard to roll with Ryan Gusto, a swingman, but it’s harder to pass up a –130 price on the Astros playing the slogging–through–it A’s. Much like the Pirates’, the Astros’ perception relies on where you draw the recency line. Draw it two and a half weeks back and there’s cause for concern. Draw it five days back and Houston looks great. We’ll default to the big-picture view.
Pick: Houston to win –130. 1.65 units to win 1.27. Springs and Gusto must start.
NLCS
Another day, another NL East contender seeing favorable postseason odds. Today, it’s the Phillies, whose rotation should be a major asset once October does hit. Especially since its depth insulates against the risk of aces being unavailable for Games 1 and 2 of the NLDS.
Pick: Philadelphia to win +525. 2.00 units to win 10.50.
AL East
We’re also adding more on the Blue Jays in the AL East. We’re leaving ourselves vulnerable here to a Yankees comeback, but the rest of our divisions aren’t in very good shape, and to change that, we need to amass the leverage somewhere. Big win for Toronto last night. Big weekend ahead.
Pick: Toronto to win –150. 2.00 units to win 1.33.
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I am only roughly 90% confident in these numbers. At some point we’ll get that Google Sheet up which tracks all our bets this year.
2025–26: –485.60 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2025–26: –8% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 516 single-game markets plus three completed futures portfolios)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.
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