The NFL season kicks off tonight, which means in addition to picking that game, our NFL futures are back. These have gone well for us historically, with ESPN’s FPI a much more useful tool than it gets credit for being.
As we’ve mentioned before, we’re in a cash flow pinch. We’ve lost most of our units which aren’t tied up in MLB futures. We’ll be getting a lot of cash flow back as divisions get wrapped up, but we’re probably two weeks away from the first clinch. So, we may have to pause certain channels of betting, or alter our timing. (For now, we’re planning on doing college football futures on Mondays and NFL futures on Tuesdays over the long term, provided the markets are all up in time. But again, it’ll depend on cash flow.)
In the meantime, we’ve got twelve NFL units of futures today, and we’ll have seven college football futures units tomorrow. In addition to baseball. Which, with the exception of last night, has been going well.
Dallas at Philadelphia
Using an average home-field advantage (1.75 points), FPI spits out 7.95 for tonight’s spread. That might include some rounding errors, but what we found last year was that in a very small sample, FPI won in primetime games.
Pick: Dallas +8.5 (–113). 1.27 units to win 1.12.
AFC
We’ll start at the conference level, where the Broncos and Texans both have solid playoff shots. Capitalize on those, and these will be good value.
Pick: Denver to win +1400. 1.00 unit to win 14.00.
Pick: Houston to win +1800. 1.00 unit to win 18.00.
NFC
It’s a similar situation for Tampa Bay, whose likeliest playoff path—just like that of the Texans—includes a home game.
Pick: Detroit to win +650. 2.00 units to win 13.00.
Pick: Tampa Bay to win +1500. 1.00 unit to win 15.00.
NFC North
The Lions are in a tough position, but they’re coming down to that from a great place, and they manage to catch the Packers at Lambeau without Micah Parsons close to 100%.
Pick: Detroit to win +185. 4.00 units to win 7.40.
NFC South
This is the wrong order of magnitude. Leaves too much faith in the Bucs and too much optimism around the Falcons and Panthers.
Pick: New Orleans to win +1800. 1.00 unit to win 18.00.
AFC West
This is tougher, because we do kind of assume the Chiefs will win tomorrow night. But the Chargers do appear poised to at least knock on the door, so we’ll go with FPI here as well.
Pick: LA Chargers to win +380. 2.00 units to win 7.60.
Cleveland at Tampa Bay
No spot-based plays today—small board with a lot of weird games—but Heat Index’s second choice is the Rays, who’ve bounced back lately and played good baseball for a few weeks now. The Guardians had a better time in Boston than it looked like they were going to, but it still wasn’t good.
Pick: Tampa Bay to win –156. 1.75 units to win 1.12. Allen and Pepiot must start.
New York (AL) at Houston
Heat Index’s first choice remains the Yankees. Brutal one last night for us.
Pick: New York to win –135. 1.51 units to win 1.12. Rodón and Javier must start.
NL West
More on the Dodgers in the futures markets. All the postseason value—Blue Jays, Yankees, Mets—comes in areas where we have enough upside already.
Pick: Los Angeles to win –450. 4.00 units to win 0.89.
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I am only roughly 90% confident in these numbers. At some point we’ll get that Google Sheet up which tracks all our bets this year.
2025–26: –494.58 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2025–26: –8% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 694 single-game markets plus three completed futures portfolios)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.
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