Today’s Best Bets: The Burlington Point Factory

Good day yesterday (if you take out the part where we called SMU the best team in the ACC).


San Francisco at Cleveland

I think we’re getting a Shedeur line here. And it’s the Shedeur line we want.

Pick: San Francisco –5.5 (–110). 1.11 units to win 1.01.


Yale at Vermont

I’m not sure why this opened so low and kept moving lower. I’m hoping it’s because of the pace. These defenses are rough, though, and I don’t think it’s in an “unsustainable opponent 3P%” way.

Pick: Over 148 (–110). 1.11 units to win 1.01.


Qatar Grand Prix

We love a safe-ish motorsports pick.

Pick: Max Verstappen to finish top 3 (–300). 3.03 units to win 1.01.

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I am only roughly 90% confident in these numbers. At some point we’ll get that Google Sheet up which tracks all our bets this year.

2025–26: –537.03 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)

2025–26: –7% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 983 single-game markets plus four completed futures portfolios)

Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)

Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.

These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.

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The Barking Crow's resident numbers man. NIT Bracketology, college football forecasting, and things of that nature. Fields inquiries on Twitter: @joestunardi.
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