Very, very bad day yesterday. 0–6. At least our futures portfolio wasn’t getting a lot of value from the Padres hanging with the Dodgers in the NL West race or anything…
Milwaukee at Chicago (NL) – Game 1
The Brewers’ latest win streak is over, but a new one can always start again, and over the last three weeks they’ve hit 53% better than the long-term MLB average. Heat Index doesn’t look at the odds, but it’s hard not to agree with it on these.
Pick: Milwaukee to win +112. 0.23 units to win 0.26. Peralta and Horton must start.
Texas at Kansas City
On the spot-based side, Jack Leiter’s been rocky again lately while Michael Wacha’s steady as steady can be. The Royals are only half a game back of the Guardians for the lucky dog spot in the Wild Card race. That shouldn’t hurt.
Pick: Kansas City to win –128. 0.48 units to win 0.38. Leiter and Wacha must start.
Los Angeles at Colorado
Heat Index’s top choice today is expensive, but it’s hard to argue with it. Hold on tight.
Pick: Los Angeles to win –275. 0.72 units to win 0.26. Yamamoto and Freeland must start.
NL East
In our season-long quest to corner the NL East market, this still leaves us a little bit in the corner. In either scenario (Mets or Phillies), we lose less than a unit. Thankfully, we’ve got enough upside likely to come in elsewhere that we should be fine overall on the division front. Also, this shores up what had become a moderate Mets liability.
Pick: New York to win +450. 2.00 units to win 9.00.
World Series
Sticking with the Mets: They’re probably going to make the playoffs. With a roster that good, that’s enough to make this price valuable.
Pick: New York (NL) to win +1800. 2.00 units to win 36.00.
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I am only roughly 90% confident in these numbers. At some point we’ll get that Google Sheet up which tracks all our bets this year.
2025–26: –494.74 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2025–26: –8% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 603 single-game markets plus three completed futures portfolios)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.
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