Bryan Woo might have been bummed about losing his no-hitter last night, and about the Mariners going on to lose a game they’d led 5–0 in the 8th. But was he as bummed as us???
We could’ve used that win.
Our “spot”-based approach is still 44–32 against average odds of –120, good for a 6.18% expected ROI. We persist.
Atlanta at St. Louis
I’m not sure the Cardinals should be an underdog here. The Braves are the better roster, but Matthew Liberatore is better than Grant Holmes, and while the Cardinals have their issues, those pale in comparison to Atlanta’s. St. Louis has been overperforming on the aggregate. Atlanta has the biggest clubhouse red flags in the league.
Pick: St. Louis to win +107. 2.23 units to win 2.39. Holmes and Liberatore must start.
Philadelphia at San Diego
This is a steep price, but that might have the effect of keeping it shorter than it should be. Ranger Suárez has been a machine all season, and while he’s had some good on-base luck in recent starts (lots of solo home runs), part of that’s because he doesn’t allow many runners to reach base.
Pick: Philadelphia to win –154. 3.67 units to win 2.38. Suárez and Bergert must start.
NLCS
We’re doubling up on today’s future. The Phillies aren’t guaranteed to win the NL East, and they’re only about a 50/50 shot to get a first-round bye. But the probabilities of those are high enough to make this valuable at a relatively short price, and that’s the kind of future you need to stock up on when you’re doing a portfolio approach.
Pick: Philadelphia to win +490. 4.00 units to win 19.60.
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I am only roughly 90% confident in these numbers. At some point we’ll get that Google Sheet up which tracks all our bets this year.
2025–26: –430.43 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2025–26: –7% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 476 single-game markets plus three completed futures portfolios)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.
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