We won last night betting on the Rockies, so for a day, we’re going to feel very smart. It’s going to be a good day that way.
Washington at New York (AL)
The only change to Heat Index today is that this is now its first choice and the Blue Jays are its second. At odds this short, Heat Index needs the Yankees to pull off a sweep to profit on the series. But that’s kind of the point of the exercise: Finding where that’s likely to happen. (We like Cade Cavalli and the Nats as a spot-based pick here, but Heat Index overrules that in our current system.)
Pick: New York to win –280. 0.56 units to win 0.20. Cavalli and Fried must start.
Atlanta at Miami
On the spot-based side, Joey Wentz has been a lot better than his ERA, and both the Braves and Marlins have returned towards their respective baselines lately. That’s good news for Atlanta.
Pick: Atlanta to win –121. 0.31 units to win 0.26. Wentz and Gusto must start.
Minnesota at Toronto
And with Heat Index’s second choice, we’re looking for the Blue Jays to get a series win. That would also help our futures, where we’re nervous as the Red Sox and Yankees lurk.
Pick: Toronto to win –177. 0.36 units to win 0.20. Woods Richardson and Lauer must start.
World Series
This late in the season, every game in a division race is huge. There was already good value on the Mets, but after last night’s comeback, it’s enormous.
The value’s smaller on the Tigers, but with it hard to find good Tigers pennant futures, we’ll stock up a little more on the World Series side.
Pick: Detroit to win +1000. 2.00 units to win 20.00.
Pick: New York (NL) to win +1800. 2.00 units to win 36.00.
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I am only roughly 90% confident in these numbers. At some point we’ll get that Google Sheet up which tracks all our bets this year.
2025–26: –495.98 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2025–26: –8% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 643 single-game markets plus three completed futures portfolios)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.
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