Good rally by MSU last night, but no dice. Really could use an Illinois win tonight for the futures portfolio.
NCAA Tournament
Arizona does look perfect so far, and Michigan’s a tough draw in the Final Four, but two games isn’t very many games. Purdue’s good enough and enough can go right to make this valuable.
Pick: Purdue to make championship game +650. 5.00 units to win 32.50.
NIT
This also is just a little mispriced. Especially when you run the simulations hot. If Illinois State does upset Auburn, they’re probably significantly better than we currently think.
Pick: Illinois State to win +1200. 5.00 units to win 60.00.
Arizona vs. Purdue
The Big Ten’s been mostly undervalued this tournament, and six is a lot of points. Boiler Up.
Pick: Purdue +6 (–105). 3.33 units to win 3.17.
**
I am only roughly 90% confident in these numbers. At some point we’ll get that Google Sheet up which tracks all our bets this year.
2025–26: –558.84 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2025–26: –6% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 1,111 single-game markets plus six completed futures portfolios)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.
**
