Man. Great work by Matthew Liberatore yesterday. That was big for us.
Our average ROI per unit is up to –2% on the year. That’s still below even, but we’re getting within shouting distance of 0% again. More importantly, we’ve now won seven of our last nine MLB moneylines. Given our historical streakiness, that’s something to feel good about.
Atlanta at Toronto
By Win Probability Added (FanGraphs version), seven players have contributed more than one win to their respective teams this year. One is Jeff Hoffman, the Blue Jays closer who’s probably off-limits today after facing seven batters in a two-inning outing yesterday afternoon. (He struck out four, allowed one hit, and got the win in a 10-inning victory which moved the Blue Jays into first place in the AL East.)
My guess is that bettors are slightly overestimating Hoffman’s value here. Yes, he’s extremely valuable when he pitches like that against leverage like that, but you can’t count on the leverage. Easton Lucas has shown he can go deep enough into games to save John Schneider from emptying the bullpen. Hoffman’s presumed lack of availability isn’t a big enough red flag to make us ignore the on-paper value.
Give us the Jays as a slight underdog.
Pick: Toronto to win +105. 15.00 units to win 15.75. Holmes and Lucas must start.
AL West
Who’s the AL West favorite right now? According to betting markets, it’s the Astros. According to FanGraphs’s Playoff Odds, it’s the Mariners.
I do wonder if a little bit of the Mariners doubt comes from perceptions that they won’t go all-in at the trade deadline, being a budget franchise by nature. The problem with that idea is that for as much of a wildcard as he is, Jerry Dipoto rarely does too little. He might shake up the clubhouse in the process, but if the division’s on the table, he’s going to chase it.
This gives our portfolio something on all four AL West teams not named the Astros. That isn’t an intentional strategy, but it gives you an idea of how markets and FanGraphs compare.
Pick: Seattle to win +300. 2.00 units to win 6.00.
NL West
We’ve asked this before, in the context of betting the Giants, but what if the Dodgers don’t win the National League West? They’re in third place right now. They’ve already had to start filling in their rotation with Landon Knack. They’re the oldest team in the majors.
The D-Backs aren’t in the best position to capitalize on that possibility, but they are on a 91-win pace in the early going, and they haven’t gotten to play any cupcakes yet. We’ll happily stash this one away.
Pick: Arizona to win +1400. 2.00 units to win 28.00.
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I am only roughly 90% confident in these numbers. We’ll get that Google Sheet up soon which tracks all our bets this year.
2025: –72.79 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2025: –2% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 294 single-game markets plus one completed futures portfolio)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.
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