Great stuff from the Mariners last night, keeping our MLB futures pointed in a positive direction. Elsewhere, seven weeks with football every day start today.
NLCS
Running this back today. There’s value out there on the Mariners too, but that’s dicier than the Dodgers and we have more upside on the Mariners already. The Dodgers winning is still a bad scenario for us.
Pick: Los Angeles to win –160. 4.00 units to win 2.50.
Game 4: Toronto at New York (AL)
The Blue Jays coughed up a five-run lead early in Game 3, when they could have clinched. Now the Yankees have the momentum and get to start Cam Schlittler, who probably had the best start of the whole postseason so far when you consider the leverage.
It’s so easy to make too much of that. The Blue Jays should be an underdog, but not by this much.
Pick: Toronto to win +153. 1.37 units to win 2.10. Varland and Schlittler must start.
Missouri State at Middle Tennessee
This line’s about seven points short of where we think it would be if Jacob Clark was fully healthy for Missouri State.
Seven points is way too many for a Conference USA quarterback.
This is a high-uncertainty game, but all reasons for going with MTSU on it are convoluted. We’ll go with the simple case for Missouri State: They’re the better team.
Pick: Missouri State –1.5 (–112). 2.35 units to win 2.10.
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I am only roughly 90% confident in these numbers. At some point we’ll get that Google Sheet up which tracks all our bets this year.
2025–26: –431.15 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2025–26: –6% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 823 single-game markets plus three completed futures portfolios and one partly completed futures portfolio)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.
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