It does hurt to lose a Dodgers moneyline against the Rockies. That one hurts. Moving on to a busy Tuesday…
Milwaukee at Chicago (NL) – Game 1
Heat Index’s first choice today is the Brewers, which makes sense. They’re a steamroller. The Cubs are Play-Doh. The question for us was whether this meant we should also pick the Brewers as Heat Index’s second choice. More to come!
Pick: Milwaukee to win +138. 0.19 units to win 0.26. Patrick and Boyd must start.
New York (AL) at Tampa Bay
This is a surprising price. Carlos Rodón has cooled off a little, and the Rays have leveled off, but this price seems to make a lot out of those two developments.
Pick: New York to win –120. 0.47 units to win 0.39. Rodón and Baz must start.
Sacramento at Minnesota
We decided to let Heat Index diversify with its second pick. It had the A’s very narrowly behind the Brewers for choice number one, and…
Pick: Sacramento to win +122. 0.21 units to win 0.26. Lopez and Ryan must start.
Milwaukee at Chicago (NL) – Game 2
…We like the Brewers in Game 2 as a spot-based bet anyway. Brandon. Woodruff against Jameson Taillon? We should be so lucky.
Pick: Milwaukee to win –106. 0.42 units to win 0.40. Woodruff and Taillon must start.
Cincinnati at Anaheim
We’ve been hesitant about the Reds and bullish on Kyle Hendricks continuing to defy everything. But this price is too low for us to pass up, especially given how well Hunter Greene’s pitched this year when healthy.
Pick: Cincinnati to win –126. 0.49 units to win 0.39. Greene and Hendricks must start.
Cleveland at Arizona
This is another that doesn’t make a lot of sense to us. The Guardians have things to play for, and Eduardo Rodriguez has really muddled through. Maybe we’re on our way to another 0–6 day like Sunday, but with our units this small, a bunch of shots seems like a reasonable approach.
Pick: Cleveland to win +109. 0.36 units to win 0.39. Bibee and Rodriguez must start.
ALCS
On the futures side, there’s pretty good value available here on the Royals. It’s a stretch, but they’re not an outrageous possibility to make the playoffs, with the Yankees/Astros/Mariners not locked in and the Red Sox liable to go on a little losing streak. 100-to-1 is good money here.
Pick: Kansas City to win +10000. 2.00 units to win 200.00.
World Series
Elsewhere, that uncertainty (and Vlad Jr.’s new hamstring uncertainty) has the Tigers looking likely to get a bye and possibly even the top seed in the AL. They’ve righted the ship, and they still have Tarik Skubal, the most impactful single player in the sport in a hypothetical seven-game series.
Pick: Detroit to win +1100. 2.00 units to win 22.00.
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I am only roughly 90% confident in these numbers. At some point we’ll get that Google Sheet up which tracks all our bets this year.
2025–26: –494.82 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2025–26: –8% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 606 single-game markets plus three completed futures portfolios)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.
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