Another unprofitable performance from us yesterday. Thought the Marlins might take it in the ninth.
An MLB moneyline for today, two Elite Eight picks, and a college basketball future:
Cleveland at Kansas City
There’s a decent amount of value on today’s board if you trust FanGraphs. (This early in the season, we do.) After yesterday’s day off, we expect both the Royals and the Guards to be at pretty much full strength. The Royals are narrowly the better team on paper, and while we do think the Guards might end up better than their on-paper projections, Lugo adds a comfort level here, even as he gets up there in age.
Pick: Kansas City to win –115. 15.00 units to win 13.04. (Williams and Lugo must start.)
Florida vs. Texas Tech
On the basketball side, we like underdogs today. Kenpom favors them. Nate Silver’s math favors them by more. It’s easy to see how a lot of public pressure (or anticipated public pressure) could drive these lines upwards. With this one in particular, we’re encouraged by Florida’s struggles against UConn. Texas Tech’s a lot better than UConn, and while we’re not saying the Red Raiders should be favorites here or that we’re incorporating Florida’s vulnerability into this bet, it’s encouraging psychologically to have seen the struggles materialize.
Pick: Texas Tech +7 (–105). 10.00 units to win 9.52.
Duke vs. Alabama
Alabama’s so three-or-die that I do wonder about the math behind their variability. Is the moneyline more worthwhile because they’re all-or-nothing? Or does it all come out in the wash? We’re fairly beholden to our system, for better or worse, so we aren’t going to rock our own boat today. But yes, we understand it’s possible Bama will shoot 20% from three and get annihilated here.
Pick: Alabama +7 (–105). 10.00 units to win 9.52.
NCAA Tournament
Our probabilities show value on Auburn today, and we like that. They’re on the better side of the bracket, avoiding Duke in the Final Four. They’ve got a decent Elite Eight matchup, drawing Michigan State rather than Alabama or Tennessee. They’ve also got Johni Broome, the most reliable basket in the country when they need one. This makes our NCAA Tournament scenarios…
- Tennessee wins: +40.0 units
- Michigan State wins: +22.0 units
- Auburn wins: +2.5 units
- Anyone else: –4.0 units
All of that combines to an expected return of 0.18 units, with a 28.4% chance of profiting. Not all that likely, but hopefully we get some help today.
Pick: Auburn to win +550. 1.00 unit to win 5.50.
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I am only roughly 90% confident in these numbers. We’ll get that Google Sheet up soon which tracks all our bets this year.
2025: –284.67 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2025: –9% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 240 single-game markets plus one half-completed futures portfolio)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.
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