Not against the field, anyway.
Nice little day for us yesterday. More college basketball and college football today, plus catching up on our college football futures.
Kansas State vs. Nebraska
I just don’t think K-State’s closer enough to Kansas City (relative to how close Nebraska is) to negate the Husker turnout here, and I don’t think the market’s valuing that enough.
Pick: Nebraska –1.5 (–110). 1.32 units to win 1.15.
Florida State at NC State
What if figuring out Florida State is as simple as this?
At home, they’re 5–2 overall and 6–1 against Movelor’s spread. On the road, they’re 0–3 in both categories.
With a lot of uncertainty around both teams’ level of focus, this seems like our best option tonight.
Pick: NC State +6.5 (–107). 2.66 units to win 2.31.
CFP National Championship
We’ve said all year that the only four teams with talent that could believably win a national championship are Ohio State, Georgia, Alabama, and Texas.
There’s finally value on someone other than Ohio State.
Pick: Georgia to win +1000. 3.00 units to win 30.00.
College Football Playoff
The math’s off here. SMU’s got shorter odds to win the ACC—those numbers should be equal. JMU probably only needs both Tulane and North Texas to lose, along with winning out themselves. Call it 80% likely that JMU wins out, and it only needs to be 25% likely that Tulane or UNT picks up a second loss. And with JMU vs. UNT closer to a coin toss than JMU vs. Tulane, even 15% or 20% might get the job done.
Pick: SMU to make playoff +350. 1.00 unit to win 3.50.
Pick: James Madison to make playoff +400. 1.00 unit to win 4.00.
SEC
There are other scenarios, but most likely, the SEC Championship will either be Georgia vs. Alabama or Texas A&M vs. Alabama. We’ve got Georgia a 4-point favorite against the Tide, and Alabama about a 1-point favorite against the Aggies. That makes either of these better than the odds we expect to get in two weeks.
Pick: Georgia to win +220. 5.00 units to win 11.00.
Pick: Alabama to win +250. 4.00 units to win 10.00.
**
I am only roughly 90% confident in these numbers. At some point we’ll get that Google Sheet up which tracks all our bets this year.
2025–26: –523.49 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2025–26: –6% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 925 single-game markets plus four completed futures portfolios)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.
**
