After a good Tuesday, we’re still down over the last five days. Now, on normally tricky Wednesday, we like six moneylines. Is that too many? Are we walking into the same trap in a few of them? We sure hope not.
Tampa Bay at Detroit
This is the only clearcut pick today, which is going to sound funny if it loses and others win. Zack Littell keeps allowing solo home runs, stranding runners at an improbable 89.5% clip (shoutout FanGraphs, as always). The Tigers are looking for their sixth straight win, which would surprisingly be their longest win streak of the season. We think they get it, even if this starts a little later than the already delayed first pitch time.
Pick: Detroit to win –140. 10.24 units to win 7.31. Littell and Olson must start.
Chicago (NL) at Minnesota
The numbers check out here as far as labeling the Cubs an underdog, but we’re not sure the numbers capture how effectively the Cubs have avoided sweeps this year. The Twins aren’t going for a sweep today—this is only Game 2 of a three-game set—but the point stands. It’s hard to beat the Cubs on consecutive days. Cade Horton’s been solid. David Festa’s on a good run but has generally been rocky. We like the visitors to even things up, especially with Jhoan Duran so sick yesterday that the Twins sent him home, reportedly fearing a bullpen outbreak.
Pick: Chicago to win –101. 7.39 units to win 7.32. Horton and Festa must start.
Pittsburgh at Kansas City
For a while, the Pirates were winning more often when Bailey Falter started. Lately, that hasn’t held up as much. A five-walk outing against the Rangers three weeks ago led into a three-homer trip to Seattle on Friday. Now, on normal rest, he opposes Kris Bubic, a top-ten pitcher on the season. Making things worse, the Bucs have averaged 1.2 runs per game over their last five, partly due to those three straight shutouts in Washington.
Pick: Kansas City to win –181. 13.24 units to win 7.31. Falter and Bubic must start.
Cleveland at Houston
The Guardians are 2–5 this year when going for a sweep. That’s a small sample, and it’s probably meaningless, but it does lead us to think markets might be making too much of the recent recovery. It’s not abnormal for Cleveland to beat its on-paper projections. Expecting that, though, is a dangerous game. It shouldn’t be that surprising that the Guards are playing to where the numbers say they should be.
Pick: Houston to win –145. 10.61 units to win 7.32. Cecconi and Walter must start.
Texas at Anaheim
Kyle Hendricks had a bad 2022 and bounced back with a strong 2023. Kyle Hendricks had a bad 2024 and so far, in 2025, he’s really limiting the quality of contact he’s allowing. Is that going to hold up? We’re not sure, but we trust him more than we trust Kumar Rocker.
On the topic of last night’s beatdown: That was the ninth time this year that the Angels have allowed ten or more runs. So far, they’re 5–3 in the next game after those performances, allowing an average of 4.0 runs in those follow-up games. That’s not significant, but that’s kind of the point. We’re not seeing persistent implosions from this group, which so far seems fairly resilient.
Pick: Anaheim to win +100. 7.32 units to win 7.32. Rocker and Hendricks must start.
Arizona at San Diego
Brandon Pfaadt’s been a lot better these last six outings, a not-insignificant amount of time. He’s especially been better these last three outings, pushing his strikeout numbers back up and keeping the ball in the yard.
The problem, for Pfaadt, is that he and the Diamondbacks are facing Dylan Cease and the Padres. Cease has struggled with the long ball in his last two games, but he’s one of the league’s best arms. The Padres aren’t as strong offensively as the D-Backs, but there are reasons they’re 4.5 games up on Arizona, and starting pitching is one of them.
Pick: San Diego to win –143. 10.46 units to win 7.31. Pfaadt and Cease must start.
NL East
The NL East market has swung back around to where there’s value on the Mets, and our portfolio could use that, currently relying pretty heavily on the Blue Jays taking the AL East or the Cubs losing the NL Central to someone other than the Reds. This lowers our good-case scenarios involving the Phillies, but it raises our 25th-percentile outcomes.
Pick: New York to win +130. 4.00 units to win 5.20.
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I am only roughly 90% confident in these numbers. At some point we’ll get that Google Sheet up which tracks all our bets this year.
2025–26: –403.14 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2025–26: –7% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 466 single-game markets plus three completed futures portfolios)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.
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