Well, we might have to pivot on our NFL approach against the spread. Also, the Blue Jays missed an opportunity to grab us some units. Also, we’re still late on NBA and NHL futures.
Tentatively, we’re planning on posting futures for the NBA, NHL, NFL, and college football either tomorrow or Thursday. The NBA and NHL ones will be a double batch. The college football ones will probably just be Ohio State to win the national championship again. Maybe North Dakota State to win theirs! There’s a chance we’ll start diving into conference races but if the market’s giving us a 24% EV on Ohio State, it’s hard to pass up. (We were hoping to get in on conference races today, but JMU/Texas State’s actually a big game and we are behind.
World Series
More and more, we just need the Blue Jays to win one more game.
Pick: Toronto +2.5 Games –170. 17.00 units to win 10.00.
James Madison at Texas State
We can of course absolutely see JMU covering tonight. But JMU’s popular nationally, Texas State’s been snakebit (three straight one-score losses, the last two in OT), and this is a weird Tuesday night home game for the Bobcats. We really like both programs. We see Texas State keeping this tight.
Pick: Texas State +7 (–104). 3.15 units to win 2.86.
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I am only roughly 90% confident in these numbers. At some point we’ll get that Google Sheet up which tracks all our bets this year.
2025–26: –469.60 units (started with 1,000-unit bankroll)
2025–26: –6% average ROI (weighted by unit; sample size: 865 single-game markets plus three completed futures portfolios and one partly completed futures portfolio)
Pre-2025: 0% average ROI (worse when limited to only sports)
Units taken from best odds we can find at major sportsbooks available to most Americans.
These bets are not investment advice. If you’re worried you or someone you know might have a gambling addiction, call 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.
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