Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –2.0% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 7,752 published picks, not including pending futures; and an average return on investment, per pick, of +2.6% across 2,293 completed high and medium-confidence picks. The low confidence picks are the problem. Most of our picks are in the low confidence category.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. We rely heavily on FanGraphs for all our MLB action. We rely heavily on Nate Silver’s presidential election model for our election futures. For college football bets, we primarily use our own model. For NFL bets, we lean on ESPN’s FPI.
Active markets today: MLB moneylines and a single-game NFL bet.
Here’s the history on each and how we approach them:
MLB moneylines: Last year, we finished the season up about 8%. We’re 163–137–4 so far this year, down 5.77 units. About a month ago, we pivoted to a different set of systems. We’re 51–35–1 since the pivot, up 7.03 units. The biggest driver of that success has been Heat Index, our pet metric which gauges the gap between how hot different teams is. Together, Heat Index’s top two choices are 35–11–1 and up 13.98 units. Heat Index’s second choice is more successful than its first, but the sample is small on both and smaller on the second.
Single-game NFL bets: We published these for the first time last year, and they went terribly. So far this year, we’re 1–1, down 0.12 units.
Colorado @ Milwaukee
With our shifting sample and yesterday’s results, the Marlins rise far enough up the hot/cold leaderboard to make Phillies/Marlins no longer Heat Index’s top choice. Instead, it’s the Brewers, who’ve been the second choice the rest of the weekend. They *should* take care of business, but we’re wary with the big division lead and the Sunday factor.
Pick: Milwaukee to win –275. Low confidence. (Freeland and Peralta must start.)
Washington @ Pittsburgh
This is more of where Heat Index has made its money for us, finding hot underdogs and riding them. The Nationals are that exact type of underdog. Over the last three weeks, they’ve hit and pitched better than 27 MLB teams. We’re not guaranteeing a win or anything, but we suspect they’re underestimated in this one.
Pick: Washington to win +142. Low confidence. (Corbin and Jones must start.)
LA Rams @ Detroit
Having missed the early kickoffs, what we’re looking for here is a fairly normal game, one where neither team is starting a new quarterback or dealing with a crazy amount of injury concern. By that standard, Matthew Stafford’s second return to Detroit is, true to form, fairly normal.
FPI likes the Lions by three on a neutral field, which means whatever amount of home-field advantage you give the Lions, this line leans towards the Rams. Should we trust FPI? Not blindly, I don’t think. But that’s why we’re trying to look for normal games here.
Pick: Detroit –4.5 (–105). Low confidence.
