Editor’s Note: Over a sample size of 511 completed bets (this doesn’t include outstanding futures picks), Joe’s picks published here and back at All Things NIT, our former site, have an average return on investment of 4% when weighted by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high). This, compared to other picks consistently published online, is pretty good. It would not be a great annual ROI for an investor. But it’s not too shabby on a daily basis.
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Two picks today, both in the MLB.
As always:
- Lines come from the Vegas Consensus at the time this is written, or the best approximation I can find of it online.
- Data and predictions from FanGraphs, Baseball Reference, Baseball Savant, Spotrac, Sagarin, Massey Ratings, and ESPN is/are often used and/or cited.
- The blurbs often aren’t justifications of the picks. Often, they’re instead just notes about something or someone related to the pick. Something that interests me. You are not required to read these. I don’t explain the picks because in general, the rationale behind each pick is the same, so it would be boring to say over and over again that the numbers I use project a good return on investment and I see no red flags significant enough to make me hold off.
Cleveland @ Minnesota
The trade deadline deal that sent Trevor Bauer to Cincinnati and brought Yasiel Puig and Franmil Reyes was supposed to jumpstart the Cleveland offense, which ranked 18th in the MLB to that point in wRC+, at 94. And while it’s worked to an extent, as the offense has been 15th-best (99 wRC+) since the deadline, the José Ramírez injury dealt a big blow.
Since Ramírez went down, Cleveland’s posted only a 96 wRC+. It’s a small sample, but it’s been a meaningful one, as Terry Francona’s squad has seen its playoff chances drop from 82.0% to 35.3%. Some of that, of course, has been due to the Rays and A’s, but Cleveland’s offense is a problem. One that might doom their season.
Pick: Under 8.5 (-105). Low confidence.
Colorado @ San Diego
Peter Lambert made waves with his sensational debut in early June. At Wrigley Field, he allowed the Cubs only one run on four hits and a walk over seven innings, striking out nine. The third-ranked prospect (by FanGraphs) in the Colorado system, Lambert looked like he might be a valuable piece for the plausible wild card contender, as the Rockies’ playoff chances sat at 19.9% the next morning.
Since then, things have gone quite badly. Lambert has a 7.19 ERA, with a 6.09 FIP and 5.15 xFIP that don’t make matters much better. He’s never again lasted more than six innings, and he’s allowed four or more earned runs in half his 16 starts. Part of the problem, as that xFIP-FIP gap would indicate, has been a high number of home runs (two for every nine innings of work), but when a pitcher’s xSLG is worse than that of 90% of his peers, lots of home runs happen.
Lambert entered the league with a reputation for pitching to contact and minimizing damage. He’s done the former. But the latter has been elusive.
Pick: San Diego to win (-140). Low confidence.
