Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of -5% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 3,399 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of 0.3% across 762 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us). Our ETA to get the overall number back profitable is currently November 5th, the date of a potential World Series Game 7.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. For futures bets (in both sports and politics) and motorsports bets, odds are taken from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline as our best approximation of the Vegas consensus, which isn’t currently/accurately available online. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks. FiveThirtyEight’s SPI is heavily used in making soccer picks. ESPN’s SP+ is heavily used in making college football picks against the spread.
Formula 1: Dutch Grand Prix
We aren’t picking against Max Verstappen when he’s on the pole in his home country in a season in which nobody else can consistently compete with him, and we especially aren’t doing that at these odds.
Pick: Max Verstappen to win -180. Low confidence.
IndyCar: Grand Prix of Portland
The points leader starts on the front row, and while it’s a treacherous front row, seeing him lower down on the odds than McLaughlin and Newgarden does seem to indicate a little bit of value. The wisdom goes that Penske likes to split strategies. It’s hard to see them not giving their better bet to Power in this position.
Pick: Will Power to win +600. Low confidence.
NASCAR Cup Series: Southern 500
This one’s difficult. Christopher Bell looks valuable in a vacuum, but the rest of the Toyotas which ran the spring race at Darlington had a bad time of it. Because of this, we’ll go with the polesitter, even though it’s pricey. I suppose you can trust that if Logano has a shot late, he won’t check up.
Pick: Joey Logano to win +700. Low confidence.
