Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –0.6% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 5,111 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of +3.1% across 1,617 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us).
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks. Movelor is heavily used in making college football picks.
One MLB moneyline today, a pair of college football picks against the spread. MLB futures are off for the weekend. Here’s the context on each market.
Single-game MLB bets: On the season, we’re 89–60–4, we’re up 20.79 units, we’re up 14% (the average line on our winners has been –110). We don’t have great history in September, but we didn’t have great history in August, and August was one of our two best months of the year.
Single-game college football bets: On the season, we’re 4–5, 3–4 on FBS vs. FBS games.
Chicago (NL) @ Cincinnati
It’s another tough board today, and we don’t love betting on an unheralded debutant, but it’s just still hard to trust Jameson Taillon, and Carson Spiers has had a good thing going lately at AAA. The Cubs and Reds both have a decent amount of bullpen rested, but that evens out. Ultimately, this fits our parameters, and it’s been rare to find those sorts of opportunities lately.
Pick: Cincinnati to win +131. Low confidence. (Taillon and Spiers must start.)
Jackson State vs. Florida A&M
After the opening week debacle last year in which FAMU was rumored to have failed to process a couple dozen players’ eligibility paperwork and the eligible players reportedly considered boycotting the game over safety concerns, the Rattlers had a pretty good year. They lost the next week to Jackson State and then won their final nine games. They’re a popular pick to win the SWAC this year.
Where we start doubting FAMU is looking at the score of that Jackson State game last year. The Tigers won that game 59–3. Where we also start doubting is looking at how well Jackson State played last week, overperforming expectations in their first game post-Prime. This is still a talented roster, and in our one data point so far, it played like it.
Pick: Jackson State –4.5 (–110). Low confidence.
LSU vs. Florida State
It’s not that Florida State isn’t good. The program has gotten a lot better these last 18 months, rewarding FSU’s decisionmakers for fending off the most rash line of thinking in Tallahassee. The question is whether FSU has gotten even better this offseason, and while it’s possible they have, there’s just no guarantee that a team will continue on its improvement trajectory after one step forward. At the same time, there’s comparable reason to believe LSU has gotten better, if not more. This feels like a hype line with a dash of home-field because the game’s in Orlando. We’re cautious about the hype, and we don’t think the home-field aspect will be significant.
Pick: LSU –1.5 (–115). Low confidence.
