Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –0.8% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 5,196 published picks, not including pending futures, and an average return on investment, per pick, of +3.1% across 1,643 completed high and medium-confidence picks (low confidence picks, these days, are in experimental markets for us).
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks. Movelor is heavily used in making college football picks, with some references to ESPN’s FPI and SP+. FPI is heavily used in making NFL picks, especially futures.
One MLB moneyline, a few MLB futures, and a little NFL. Here’s the context on each market.
Single-game MLB bets: On the season, we’re 97–72–5, we’re up 16.85 units, we’re up 10% (the average line on our winners has been –109). It’s been a tough few weeks, but we got a big win yesterday, and are looking to build on that over these last eight days of the regular season.
MLB futures: We began the season with 750 units in our MLB futures portfolio, with the intent being to spend 500 of those over the regular season and keep 250 in reserve for the postseason and/or hedging & arbitrage opportunities. This is circular, because we use FanGraphs probabilities to guide our picks, but if we use FanGraphs probabilities and include today’s plays, our mean expected return on the 750 units (based on what we’ve bet so far) is 124.60 units, or 16.6%.
Single-game NFL bets: On the season, we’re 2–6–3, we’re down 4.26 units, we’re down 39%. We are also on at least a one-game winning streak, though, so who’s to say whether these picks are good or bad?
Kansas City @ Houston
This is low-upside, and to be honest, it isn’t great value. This is a hard time of year, though, because of how varying the incentives are for these teams. While the Royals are playing some good baseball (wild, I know) and the Astros are struggling, it is nearly unfathomable that the Royals could sweep the Astros here. Most of the season, sure, the Royals can sweep the Astros, and maybe the Astros really are falling apart right now. But we like Houston to at least avoid total disaster, and we’re encouraged in this by them following this same pattern last weekend when the series was in Kansas City.
Pick: Houston to win –260. Low confidence. (Cruz and Brown must start.)
ALCS
We’re tripling up on this, with not all sportsbooks reacting quickly enough to Texas’s 2–0 series lead over the Mariners in this effective best-of-seven for the final playoff spot. Why only tripling up? The same reason we aren’t taking advantage of the Rays–Orioles arbitrage available in the AL East markets this morning: We are stressing the limits of our cash flow at the moment in our real-life accounts. It would be helpful if the Brewers were to clinch today. We must stress sometimes that we are amateur bettors, as frustrated as we may be right now with how that’s playing out.
Pick: Texas to win +550. Medium confidence. x3
Denver @ Miami
There isn’t a lot today we feel strongly about, but while this is the NFL and teams are very close in quality, this is a lopsided matchup where the biggest risk is probably complacency on the part of the Dolphins. If that’s the biggest concern, we’ll take it, especially without seeing anything better.
Pick: Miami –5.5 (–115). Low confidence.
