Editor’s Note: Over a sample size of 544 completed bets (this doesn’t include outstanding futures picks), Joe’s picks published here and back at All Things NIT, our former site, have an average return on investment of 4% when weighted by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high). This, compared to other picks consistently published online, is pretty good. It would not be a great annual ROI for an investor. But it’s not too shabby on a daily basis.
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Three picks today.
As always:
- Lines come from the Vegas Consensus at the time this is written, or the best approximation I can find of it online.
- Data and predictions from FanGraphs, Baseball Savant, Spotrac, and ESPN is/are often used and/or cited.
- The blurbs often aren’t justifications of the picks. Often, they’re instead just notes about something or someone related to the pick. Something that interests me. I don’t explain the picks because in general, the rationale behind each pick is the same, so it would be boring to say over and over again that the numbers I use project a good return on investment and I see no red flags significant enough to make me hold off.
Texas @ Oakland
Lance Lynn will likely hit 200 innings today for the first time since 2014. It’s the culmination of an impressive comeback for the big righty, who—at 32—is having the best season of his career by more than two fWAR.
Lynn will be only the eighth pitcher to hit 200 innings on the season. Ten years ago, 36 pitchers made it to 200 (with three hitting it directly on the nose). Twenty years ago, 44 pitchers made the threshold. Thirty years ago, 52 pitchers. And while the number this season could easily top a dozen, it’s still a rarer and rarer feat. Which makes Lynn’s year all the more impressive.
Pick: Texas to win (+168). Low confidence.
Pick: Under 8.5 (-115). Low confidence.
Arizona @ San Diego
Garrett Richards made his first major league start in over a year on Monday, completing his return from Tommy John surgery. The result wasn’t great on the scoreboard—three runs, just eleven outs, all the runs earned. But Richards struck out five, walked none, and allowing none of the eleven batted balls against him to be “barreled,” a Statcast term designating contact quality more with over a .500 xBA and over a 1.500 xSLG (somewhere around five percent of all contact has been “barreled” this year). The outing could have gone better (there were some well-struck balls), but Richards, who’s signed through 2020, is another reason for optimism in San Diego.
Pick: San Diego to win (+118). Low confidence.
