Editor’s Note: For almost two years now, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. There have been moments of greatness (the Nationals winning the World Series last year, the first two months of last college basketball season). There have been moments of frustration (the second two months of last college basketball season). Overall, the results have been positive, with an average return on investment, per pick, of 5% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 1,039 published picks, not including pending futures. And while 5% might not be a great annual return on overall investments, if you strategize well with timing, you can turn daily 5%’s into a whole lot more than 5% over the course of a year.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have a gambling problem, get help.
Lines for these come from the Vegas Consensus or the closest approximation available at the time picks are written, unless otherwise noted. The blurbs aren’t always explanations of the picks—sometimes they are, but often they’re just notes related to the contest, to avoid redundancy. Data and predictions from FanGraphs is heavily used in making MLB picks. Data from Baseball Savant and ESPN is also often used with those. Data from Bill Connelly’s SP+ is heavily used in making College Football picks.
Another future today, with the line for that coming from Bovada due to the difficulty of finding a current Vegas Consensus. First, though…
Game 1: Washington @ Miami
The Nationals don’t have a lot left to play for, which makes this a bit risky. In a doubleheader, though, one would imagine if they were to rest their studs, they’d do it in the second game, in which Max Scherzer is not pitching. These odds are good for this line, even over just seven innings.
Pick: Washington -1.5 (+125). Low confidence.
San Diego vs. Seattle (Game in San Diego, Seattle is the Home Team)
The risk here is that the Padres will start resting players with their slot in the NL Playoffs fairly well-wrapped up. They haven’t been doing that yet, though, so unless you see a lineup before you make this pick, proceed—albeit cautiously.
Pick: San Diego to win -260. Low confidence.
Future
If you haven’t jumped on the Braves yet and this makes sense for your futures portfolio, don’t wait. The value’s there.
Pick: Atlanta to win World Series +1400. Low confidence.
