Editor’s Note: Since November 2018, Joe has been publishing picks here and back at All Things NIT, our former site. Overall, the results have been mixed, with an average return on investment, per pick, of –2.0% when weighting by confidence (1 for low, 2 for medium, 3 for high) across 7,727 published picks, not including pending futures; and an average return on investment, per pick, of +2.6% across 2,293 completed high and medium-confidence picks. The low confidence picks are the problem. Most of our picks are in the low confidence category.
Use these picks at your own risk. Only you are responsible for any money you lose, and you should not bet more than you can afford to lose. If you’re afraid you might have a gambling problem, seek help.
Odds for these come from the better option between Bovada and BetOnline. We used to use the Vegas Consensus, but it’s no longer consistently available in an accurate form online. We rely heavily on FanGraphs for all our MLB action. We rely heavily on Nate Silver’s presidential election model for our election futures. For college football bets, we look heavily towards our own model.
Active markets today: MLB moneylines, single-game college football, and a little more IndyCar.
Single-day MLB bets: Last year, we finished the season up about 8%, betting strictly moneylines. We’re 154–132–3 so far this year, down 6.87 units. Over the last three-ish weeks, we’ve been trying a different collection of approaches. So far, that effort is 42–30, up 5.93 units. It’s gone well, but we haven’t been able to get over the hump yet and reattain profitability.
Single-game college football bets: Our history here is mediocre. We’re 3–4 so far this season, down 1.35 units.
IndyCar: Our published IndyCar history is very, very weak. Be forewarned. We have had private success betting ovals, and we made 1.56 units on five units of bets on yesterday’s race, but be forewarned.
San Diego @ Tampa Bay
Heat Index has cooled off lately, but it’s still 17–7 overall and up 4.05 units over its young history. Are we concerned about the recent swoon? Not really. Why? Well…
Pick: San Diego to win –117. Low confidence. (Cease and Pepiot must start.)
Boston @ Detroit
Heat Index’s second choice is now 9–0, up 7.83 units. Its outperformance of Heat Index’s first choice is undoubtedly small-sample noise—there’s no reason our pet metric should point to winners more often with its second choice than with its first—but the real message here is that we still believe in the concept. Even though…
Pick: Detroit to win +104. Low confidence. (Criswell and Brieske must start.)
St. Louis @ New York (AL)
Heat Index’s third choice is now 1–4, down 2.77 units. Small samples are weird. Overall, our Heat Index-driven MLB moneylines are 27–11, up 9.11 units. We’re going to keep going with them.
Pick: New York (AL) to win –225. Low confidence. (Mikolas and Cortes must start.)
LSU vs. USC
Normally, our early-season advice on games where Movelor is far away from the spread is to fade Movelor. What we think generally happens with those is that the market knows something but is held back too much by last year’s finish. Movelor, which is especially prone to being held back by last year’s finish, should be on the wrong side of a highly efficient market in these games.
Tonight, though, we differ, and maybe we’re walking into a trap, but two things are giving us pause about USC:
First, LSU fans care a lot more about football than USC fans do. I’m sorry, but that’s true. They like it more, and they are more committed to their team. LSU fans’ solution to being frustrated with their program’s performance is not to show up. It’s to show up and be angry. It’s easy to get to Las Vegas from Los Angeles, but it’s also easy to get there from New Orleans and Baton Rouge. If bettors are considering this even a one-point home-field advantage for the Trojans, that’s at least one point in our favor.
Second, LSU has the more talented roster. This is where the Lincoln Riley era’s gotten weird. USC’s only 15th in the 247Sports Talent Composite. That is not what this program is supposed to be under Riley, and it might be sneaking past bettors, with Miller Moss a more promising quarterback than Garrett Nussmeier.
We wouldn’t bet this were it not the only college football game of the night. But those are our thoughts.
Pick: LSU –4 (–110). Low confidence.
Hy-Vee Milwaukee Mile 250 Race 2
We’re back on IndyCar, trying to pick up what we still think are very accessible units. We didn’t see anything yesterday which makes us concerned about Chevrolet’s chances today, and we don’t think markets understand that the same cars qualified for today’s race who raced yesterday. I understand why Power’s such a big underdog, but Team Penske and Pato O’Ward should be the four favorites, and Power has the most to race for out of those four cars, which incentivizes him to take even more risks than the season championship also-rans. Plus, he finished ahead of both his teammates yesterday.
Pick: Winning Car’s Engine – Chevrolet (–220). Low confidence. x3
Pick: Will Power to win +600. Low confidence.
